As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Josh Jacobs solidified his pre-draft evaluation as “a really good running back” last year. He’s one of the best young RBs in the league and is going at the backend of the first round. Should you slide Josh Jacobs onto your fantasy football squad?
Josh Jacobs ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB7, 9 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB12, 17 overall
Average Auction Value: $43
Josh Jacobs Statistics:
Josh Jacobs Overview:
Josh Jacobs averaged over 20 touches in his first season in the NFL and was one of just ten backs to hit that number last season. He was also the 28th back to do that in their rookie year ever, and it doesn’t look like that is changing anytime soon. But if you were the Raiders, why would you change that? Of the nineteen backs who had at least 250 touches last year, Jacobs ranked eighth with 5.02 yards per touch.
There’s one thing you have to like about Jon Gruden’s slavish devotion to pretending like it’s still 1996, and it has to do with giving Josh Jacobs a billion touches. The Raiders drafted a running back who is really a Swiss Army Knife (Lynn Bowden) and a bunch of guys who won’t take touches from Josh Jacobs, so the physical need to stick the ball in Jacobs’ gut twenty times a game will continue unabated. The run won’t establish itself, after all.
Josh Jacobs Draft Strategy:
Is our auction expert really recommending going above-and-beyond to get Jacobs in your auction drafts? Yes. Is he also a Raiders fan? Also, yes. That isn’t to say that taking Josh Jacobs as a first-round-but-tier-three-nevertheless running back is a terrible idea. The downside here is the lack of pass-catching for Jacobs, but he should take a huge step forward in 2020. The Raiders have a strong nucleus, and Hank Ruggs and Darren Waller will do plenty to distract opposing defenses from Josh Jacobs. While Jacobs is no Derrick Henry, it’s worth noting that Jacobs had more receptions last year than Henry has had in any given year, and he is a first-round pick.
I’m considering Jacobs to be an unsexy back-end RB1 this year. He really feels like he has no chance of ending up inside the top-five (except for a lot of injuries), but at the same time, he has an exceptionally low chance of ending up outside the top-fifteen. He has a narrow band of likely production, but that band is extremely high, so he’s well worth the price at the end of the first round, or the cost of acquisition in an auction.
Best Case Scenario:
The Raiders feed the rock to Josh Jacobs and he eats all he can. He ends up RB6.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Raiders shift their game plan around as much as they can to minimize Jacobs. He ends up RB14.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]