As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Nothing went how we thought it would go for the Chicago Bears in 2019, and that includes David Montgomery’s fantasy football season. Is there a future where Montgomery is a fantasy football steal and we look back on 2019 the same way we look back at Todd Gurley’s 2016 campaign?
David Montgomery ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB23, 49 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB25, 56 overall
Average Auction Value: $11
David Montgomery Statistics:
David Montgomery Overview:
By some measures, David Montgomery’s 2019 season wasn’t as disastrous as we would think. After all, he topped 1,000 total yards, a mark that many use to measure a “productive” season. Last year, 26 running backs hit that mark, including guys whose seasons we would call “disastrous,” like Sony Michel, Devonta Freeman, and of course, David Montgomery. Unfortunately for David Montgomery and the Bears, he was one of the least efficient running backs in the whole league, finishing as just four backs to have a yard per touch under 4.2 while getting 250 or more touches.
The reason Montgomery didn’t finish the season where many hoped he would (RB35 in half-PPR) was not only his total yardage but his touchdowns. He couldn’t buoy low yardage numbers with a ton of touchdowns, scoring just seven times in 2019. And it wasn’t like he didn’t have the opportunity to score; David Montgomery had the sixth-most carries inside the five, turning those fourteen carries into just five touchdowns. His 35% touchdown conversion rate inside the five sits well below the league average of 48% in that range, indicating issues with using Montgomery on goal-line looks.
That doesn’t look to change much in 2020, as it isn’t like the Bears’ offensive line wasn’t getting him any push. His 2.0 yards before contact per rushing attempt (YBC/Att) ranked 24th among running backs, and was ahead of Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Chris Carson, and Austin Ekeler.
Another big reason Montgomery didn’t turn in the season many had hoped he would be in his rookie year was Chicago not using him at all in the passing game, getting just 35 targets and only one ten zone target. One! Tarik Cohen’s presence and Chicago’s predilection for throwing Cohen the ball will greatly limit Montgomery’s upside in 2020.
David Montgomery Draft Strategy:
Obviously, you can tell by the difference in the draft price, and our recommended expenditure, that we are not up on David Montgomery. Sure, he gets Nick Foles this season, an improvement(?) on Mitchell Trubisky, but is that the reason behind him becoming an RB2 after ending up his rookie year as an uninspiring backend RB3?
There’s a phrase I like to use when I evaluate players and end up completely out on them: “I’m okay being wrong about them.” So far, I’ve seen nothing from David Montgomery in the NFL that gives me the inspiration to get him in 2020 drafts. This is especially true given that he’s going as a starting running back in non-PPR leagues and a priority backup in PPR leagues. I’m completely out on David Montgomery at that price, especially since he’s going ahead of guys like Kareem Hunt and Cam Akers, two guys who are also in potentially shared backfields.
David Montgomery’s 2019 campaign has put me all the way on the outside for his services in 2020. My goal is to own no David Montgomery in 2020, and if I’m wrong? I’m okay being wrong about him.
Best Case Scenario:
He turns in a poor-mans version of Jordan Howard with the Bears, who averaged about 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns per sixteen games with the Bears.
Worst Case Scenario:
The problem wasn’t Mitchell Trubisky, as the people drafting him as a starting running back hope.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]