As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. The Tennessee Titans unveiled a three-prong offensive attack in the second half of last season: Derrick Henry to the left, Derrick Henry to the right, and Derrick Henry up the middle. What can we expect from Derrick Henry in 2020?
Derrick Henry ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB6, 6 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB6, 7 overall
Average Auction Value: $60
Derrick Henry Statistics:
Derrick Henry Overview:
The Tennessee Titans ran Derrick Henry an astonishing 199 times in the last eight games of the 2019 season (including playoffs). If you do that math, that paces out to a nearly 400-carry season if they tried to do it over 16 games. It’s an amazing feat, and the most second-half carries given to a running back since Adrian Peterson’s 197 back-half carries in 2012. This showed an amazing dedication to Establishing the Run that got them one Patrick Mahomes away from the Super Bowl.
It’s not shocking when you look at Derrick Henry’s body of work—or body—that the Titans will ride him as far as he will take them. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry over the last two seasons and is one of the few players in the league that’s a threat to take the ball all the way on any given carry. Since he entered the league, Derrick Henry has more 50+ yard touchdowns (9) than Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver, Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit, Houston, and Chicago. That’s it. That’s the fact.
Henry is going to get the ball a ton, that’s the plan, and he rumbles as far as he can as much as anyone in the league does. Would you try to stop Henry when he gets a head of steam?
Derrick Henry Draft Strategy:
There’s a clear delineation in production between the top four, the Derrick Henry/Dalvin Cook tier, and the next tier (Mixon/Chubb/Drake/Ekeler). If you are in the middle of the draft order, want a running back, and Dalvin Cook is off the board, he’s your guy. In standard scoring, I am going Henry over Cook. For PPR, it’s Cook over Henry. There isn’t much thought process to be had here, he’s a great back who doesn’t catch passes. If you want a first-round RB and miss out on The Big Four, he’s a guy you can go get.
Best Case Scenario:
Derrick Henry doesn’t explode into a pink mist after the Tennessee Titans complete a hands-on experiment titled: “How Many Carries Can Derrick Henry Get Before Exploding into a Pink Mist?”
Worst Case Scenario:
The Titans get the results of the study noted above, and the number is in the double digits (so partway through the first quarter of week one).
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]