As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player (though we don’t need that for Nick Chubb!). Nick Chubb was one of the best running backs in the league last year, but he has a pesky problem: another one of the best running backs in the league sharing a backfield with him. What can we expect from Nick Chubb in 2020 fantasy football leagues?
Nick Chubb ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB9, 14 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB12, 18 overall
Average Auction Value: $51
Nick Chubb Statistics:
Nick Chubb Overview:
Nick Chubb quietly held the rushing title throughout most of the season, until the Titans went supernova with Derrick Henry and Henry’s 896 yards over the last six games gave him a 46-yard lead over Chubb as the final bell sounded on the season.
There were some significant weird usage issues with Nick Chubb last year. He didn’t get a single target inside the ten-yard line, something Kevin Stefanski’s offense should remedy. He also rushed 32 times for 12 yards inside the ten-yard line, including 15 carries for -14 yards inside the five. Fifteen carries, negative fourteen yards. Fifteen Carries. Negative Fourteen Yards. I am not putting that on Nick Chubb; Freddie Kitchens is out on his butt for a reason. This, too, is something Stefanski should remedy this season. There is a lot of upside with just pure normalization from Nick Chubb. He’s one of the best running backs in the league, and it’s time he looks like it.
Kevin Stefanski’s lead back last year, Dalvin Cook, also had 15 carries inside the five. He had 22 yards and nine touchdowns. Is there a 36-yard talent difference between Cook and Chubb? No, and some might argue Chubb is the better back.
While everyone is staring straight at the Kareem Hunt problem, I’m licking my chops at righting the ship at the goal line. This should more-than-offset whatever back seat Chubb ends up taking with Hunt around. Chub had at least 15 carries in all games he played with Hunt but week 17 last year. He’s also one of the most talented backs in the league. Will Chubb lose targets? Yes. Will throwing to Kareem Hunt instead of Nick Chubb extend drives and give Chubb more opportunities? Also yes.
Nick Chubb Draft Strategy:
Nick Chubb is going as a back-end first-round pick or an early second-rounder. With that ADP, it’s a situation that if you want Chubb at the turn, get Chubb. He can sometimes end up moving forward in the first round if players are hellbent on getting a running back, bouncing him ahead of Davante Adams and Julio Jones. I would personally rather than Davante Adams, but given the disparity between running back talent and wide receiver talent later on, the case for Chubb there is a strong one.
Chubb takes a stepdown in PPR, because of the Kareem Hunt problem. Chubb this season likely flat doesn’t catch a lot of passes, instead of moving that responsibility to Hunt. It’ll limit his yardage upside, but I am not especially worried about his yardage, given what he does when he runs the ball.
Best Case Scenario:
A Kareem Hunt injury. It’s a ghoulish and ghastly thing to say, but nothing compared to what Hunt has actually done. It looks like Hunt and Chubb will compete for touches in this backfield, to Chubb’s great detriment.
Worst Case Scenario:
Kareem Hunt gaslights Kevin Stefanski into thinking that Nick Chubb is no longer on the team, and has retired and moved to South America to hunt treasure. In reality, it is a Silence of the Lambs situation and Nick Chubb needs to put the lotion on its skin or else it gets the hose again.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]