As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Alvin Kamara is one of the best running backs in all of football, and his fantasy football draft day price reflects that. Is it possible, maybe, that his price should be even higher? Let’s break down Alvin Kamara in his 2020 player profile.
Alvin Kamara ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB4, 5 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB4, 5 overall
Average Auction Value: $60
Alvin Kamara Statistics:
|Rec||81||81||You guessed it, 81|
Alvin Kamara Overview:
Alvin Kamara looked mortal for the first time last season. He missed two games, had one of his least efficient seasons through the air, and still had over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. There’s no other way to put it: Alvin Kamara is an absolute beast. There were some serious issues, however. After averaging exactly one touchdown per game through his first two seasons, Kamara took a step back in the touchdown department last year. He scored just six touchdowns in 252 touches, well off his touchdown-per-15-touches pace through his first two seasons.
One big thing changed in 2019 compared to 2018 that might account for this change: Kamara had 20 fewer carries inside the ten, and two fewer receptions. His ten zone touches accounted for thirteen touchdowns in 2018 and just three in 2018. Still, he was significantly less efficient with his ten zone carries than he was in 2018 when he broke out and scored six touchdowns on fifteen ten zone touches.
All of this is to say: I expect a positive correction from Alvin Kamara this season. He was exceptionally unlucky with touchdowns last year and was one of the NFL’s best backs before his ankle injury (after which he wasn’t at 100%). He averaged 116.6 yards per contest on 15 carries and 5.2 catches before the injury, and was a force of nature.
Alvin Kamara Draft Strategy:
Here is the complete list of running backs I want before Alvin Kamara: Christian McCaffrey. End of list. I’m taking him over Saquon Barkley given the team offense differences, and I’m taking him over Ezekiel Elliott (and this was pre-COVID-19 for Zeke). McCaffrey and Kamara are the only running backs with three 80+ catch seasons since 2005, and one of just three backs to do it multiple times. They’re fantasy monsters, and touchdowns will return for Kamara. He wasn’t 100% when he returned from his ankle injury, but he sure as heck is 100% now. If you’re drafting at slot four (or slot five with an overzealous Michael Thomas owner), then thank your lucky stars that Kamara fell into your lap. He’s a beast, and there isn’t much else to say about that.
Best Case Scenario:
Alvin Kamara finally breaks through the 81-catch ceiling and does the unthinkable: gets 82 catches.
Worst Case Scenario:
Hellbent to get on the field whenever and wherever he can, Taysom Hill bonks Kamara over the head and locks him in a supply closet, donning his jersey, dreads, and nose ring.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]