As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Deshaun Watson saw a complete overhaul of his weaponry in the 2020 offseason. How will he fare with a new set of players around him and without one of the best wide receivers in football?
Deshaun Watson ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB3, 51 overall
Average Auction Value: $9
Deshaun Watson Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Deshaun Watson Overview:
It seems almost silly to try to look at Deshaun Watson’s passing statistics from any point in his career. He’ll be without DeAndre Hopkins for the first time ever, and his offensive weaponry has gotten deeper, but also without a clear number one. It’s evident that the Texans’ offensive philosophy changed, as they took a cue from COVID-19 and socially distanced any transcendent players from their roster to flatten the curve on their talent.
Hopkins is out, as we mentioned, as well as Carlos Hyde. In are David Johnson, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb, and this presents an interesting situation for Deshaun Watson in 2020. It’s hard to argue that Watson’s weapons are better; losing one of the best WRs in the NFL can’t lead to a better set of weaponry, but it is… flatter. I suppose that’s to say that opposing defenses won’t know where to key in on Houston’s pass-catchers, and the attack can and will come from a myriad of directions. They won’t depend on one guy as much as Hopkins, meaning that it’s less likely they get shut down as often. Then again, the players aren’t as good as Hopkins, meaning they’re more likely they get shut down as often. It’s truly a head-scratcher.
Still, the weaponry is talented, it’s just not as talented. If Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks can stay healthy and Randall Cobb and David Johnson can return to what they once were, things will be great for Watson. I’m just not bullish on that happening. Still, the individual components of the offense are still talented and varied, so it’s hard to see Watson falling out of the top-five at the end of the year unless the bad Texans offensive line can’t get their act together and he gets hurt.
Deshaun Watson Draft Strategy:
Deshaun Watson presents very good value in auction leagues, as he has a serious price drop from the top tier ($40ish) to his tier ($10-$13). This value, unfortunately, doesn’t really present in snake drafts, where he’s the #51 pick off the board. That’s still in the range where I’m looking to hoover up as many running backs as I possibly can rather than going for luxury picks like a top-three-to-five quarterback.
Unless you get a screaming value on a top quarterback, we generally recommend waiting at the position. That means that very few people who follow our plans end up with Deshaun Watson on their rosters… unless they get them at a screaming value.
Best Case Scenario:
Bill O’Brien’s offensive vision is fully executed, and they all blow up (in a good way).
Worst Case Scenario:
Bill O’Brien’s offensive vision is fully executed, and they all blow up (in a bad way).
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]