As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. This is because anyone who is looking at data from 2016 to figure out what to do in 2020 had better be working for FOX and trying to figure out who the heck was watching Bones all those years. Keenan Allen has the talent, but can he work with a QB who doesn’t have the reps?
Keenan Allen ADP and AAV:
Standard: WR13, 34 overall
PPR: WR16, 41 overall
Average Auction Value: $9
Keenan Allen Statistics:
Keenan Allen Overview:
Allen has been a top-twelve wide receiver for each of the past three years. Now we’re only wondering just how to value him with Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert under center. We’re also wondering if Tyrod Taylor knows his name anagrams to “to lay dry rot,” but maybe that’s just us. A lot of Keenan Allen’s value comes from him being Philip Rivers’ top-of-the-pops favorite target so far in his career. That isn’t to say that he didn’t earn those reps, as he is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. He’s also been the mark of consistency over the last few seasons, posting about 1,200 each of the last two years while catching between 97 and 104 passes and exactly six touchdowns in each of the last three years.
Interestingly enough, Allen’s profile changed slightly last year, as his passes traveled further downfield and his target dropped, despite playing in more games in 2019.
Also, bad news for misconceptions: Keenan Allen has now played sixteen games for three-straight years, so you can take that injury-prone label and toss it out the window.
Keenan Allen Strategy:
Over the course of his career, Keenan Allen has been a set-it-and-forget-it backend WR1/top-end WR2. A lot of that has to do with his connection to Philip Rivers. Now Rivers is a Colt, and there is uncertainty about what a Tyrod Taylor/Justin Herbert offense will look like. It could be a mess.
Because of this, Keenan Allen has the lowest floor of any WR going in the first four rounds. The talented receiver will have a conservative QB, whether it’s Taylor or Herbert they’re not going to try to take the top off much. Throw in a receiving core that also includes Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Austin Ekeler. Allen is a clear example of a “grab him if he drops too far, like the fifth round or like $13, you should pick him” kinda guy. Maybe that’s too specific, maybe he’s the only kinda guy that’s a “that” kinda guy. Actually, he isn’t (so is Courtland Sutton).
Best Case Scenario:
You reach on him and end up with the WR3.
Worst Case Scenario:
Someone else reaches on him and ends up with the WR3.
[Header Image Source: Greg Buch | FFSwami.com under CC SA 2.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]