As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. “Josh Allen can throw a football over a mountain but needs a target the size of ‘the other side of that mountain’ in order to hit a target.” That was my assessment of Josh Allen’s arm coming out of college, and so far he’s done nothing to dispel that. Still, he’s a solidified top-ten fantasy football option in 2020. How should you address Josh Allen in your 2020 drafts?
Josh Allen ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB8, 81 overall
Average Auction Value: $4
Josh Allen Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Josh Allen Overview:
Josh Allen had a breakout season last year that was overshadowed by a much bigger breakout from a different dual-threat sophomore quarterback (Lamar Jackson, you might have heard of him). He took a big step forward last year, which you can partially contribute to having a real wide receiving corps instead of Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin.
Now, Josh Allen gets Stefon Diggs to add to that legitimate WR room, and he should hopefully take another step forward in 2020. He has some limitations (notably, his deep ball accuracy is a complete mess), but he’s rushed for at least 500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. He gives you an amazing floor with his rushing, and with his weaponry, he has the ability to go supernova on any given week.
Josh Allen Draft Strategy:
Allen falls, at least in most auctions, in the “throw like $5 at him” range of quarterbacks, and his average price is lower than our advised price on Josh Allen. That tells you what you need to know about Allen: he’s a screaming buy at his current price.
Josh Allen is QB8 off the board, going at about pick 81 in most redraft leagues. That’s about twenty picks behind Dak Prescott, in round seven. That price tag is premium but also falls into the first range wherein I’m considering a QB. Allen has tremendous upside, but his downside isn’t getting baked in at that price. Give me Daniel Jones in round ten instead of Josh Allen in round seven.
A lot of Allen’s value comes from his legs, and I’m not so sure he will get the 8+ touchdowns this season. The Bills reinvested in running back, jettisoning 800-year-old Frank Gore for Zack Moss, who I had as a top-five running back in the 2020 class. This likely means fewer stuffed running back goal-line carries and fewer Josh Allen touchdown runs. Those drafting him at QB7 have to hope his passing takes a step forward to compensate.
The yin and the yang of Josh Allen, like all fantasy football players, comes down to his price. He represents a value in auction leagues right now, but his snake draft price is a bit much to swallow.
Best Case Scenario:
The Allen2Diggs connection becomes the new Mahomes2Hill. Josh Allen cleans up his deep ball and doesn’t lose anything to newcomer Zack Moss on the ground. He ends up around QB5 when all is said and done.
Worst Case Scenario:
He channels his inner Uncle Rico trying to get YOLO balls to Stefon Diggs. The Bills fall apart and Allen ends the season with a sub-55% completion and far too many interceptions.
[Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Josh_Allen_%2843569465444%29.jpg/800px-Josh_Allen_%2843569465444%29.jpg under CC BY-SA 4.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]