As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Matt Ryan had an offensive coordinator change in 2019, so he, predictably, played poorly last season. What about in 2020? Does he have the weaponry around him to make him a top-ten quarterback next season?
Matt Ryan ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB9, 84 overall
Average Auction Value: $3
Matt Ryan Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Matt Ryan Overview:
Matt Ryan ended last year’s “down” year as QB9, a perfectly serviceable fantasy football quarterback last year. He threw for almost 4,500 yards and 26 touchdowns. His interceptions were his big issue last year. Ryan posted exactly fourteen interceptions for the fourth time in his twelve-year career last year, but he was, by far, the unluckiest quarterback in that category last year.
The average interceptable pass (per PlayerProfiler.com) to interception ratio last season was 51.1%. For Matt Ryan, it sat north of 87%. He threw sixteen interceptable passes, and fourteen became picks. That should obviously come down through the sheer power of luck, ignoring anything else.
Matt Ryan Draft Strategy:
Matt Ryan falls into the category of unexciting backend WR1s. He doesn’t run the football, at all. He has 418 rush yards in his entire twelve-year career, and four quarterbacks had 400+ rushing yards last year. The lack of this dual-threat, given how fantasy football scoring works, caps Ryan’s upside. He also doesn’t blow out massive gaudy numbers as a Matthew Stafford can. Instead, he’s good and steady. Matt Ryan is a quality NFL quarterback, which would have made him a great top-five option say, fifteen years ago.
These days, it’s all about getting a dual-threat guy for top-five upside. Ryan doesn’t have that upside, but he does have a nice narrow, dependable band of projectable points. If you’re looking for a mid-round steady Eddie to anchor your team at quarterback, then snag Matt Ryan.
Best Case Scenario:
Replacing Austin Hooper with Hayden Hurst keeps the fun rolling and Calvin Ridley blows up. If the interceptions come down like they should, that would put him up in the top-six and he has a shot at top-five.
Worst Case Scenario:
A wizard curses the world to give them the jobs they look like they should have. Matt Ryan is transported to Omaha where he is the Marketing and Outreach Coordinator for a mid-size construction company.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]