As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Everyone has dreams of Kyler Murray being the new Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson… combined! How does Kyler Murray shape up for 2020 fantasy football leagues?
Kyler Murray ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB4, 55 overall
Average Auction Value: $11
Kyler Murray Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Kyler Murray Overview:
Kyler Murray had a rookie campaign that ended with him as the QB7 when all was said and done last year. Now, the Arizona Cardinals added DeAndre Hopkins and a third-round tackle to help him take the next step. Many take a look at Kyler’s profile and see a lot of Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes—the 2019 and 2018 massive breakouts, respectively—in his game. While there were ups-and-downs for the rookie signal-caller, he finished well within the top-ten and was a draft-day steal when the dust settled. Now, he adds DeAndre Hopkins to his receiving corps and looks like he’s ready to take the next step.
Kyler Murray Draft Strategy:
Many, us included, look at the profiles of the massive 2018 and 2019 breakout quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, respectively) and see that Kyler Murray is on the shortlist of players who could take that leap forward in 2020. Unfortunately, everyone is doing that, and because of this, you’re paying up for the opportunity to have Murray on your roster. He’s currently QB4 by most rankings and QB5 by ADP data, and you can thank Mahomes and Jackson for that. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins certainly doesn’t hurt his prospects, and neither does a second year with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. We believe in Kyler Murray, but you’re going to have to pay up for him if you want him on your roster. He has Mahomes/L-Jax QB1 upside, but you’re paying for it and not getting the value if you take him.
The question with Kyler Murray is when and where you can snag him in your drafts. Right now, he’s going around pick 55-60, which is the middle-to-end of the fifth round. You’re definitely paying up for Murray at that point. For reference, Deshaun Watson was the second quarterback off the board last year… at pick 60, on average. If he slips a round or two, the juice is worth the squeeze, but let someone else fill their roster with QBs in the first five rounds. The best-case scenario is they return their value at an easily-replaceable position. Given Murray’s downside, this isn’t the safest of picks, but it’s understandable.
Best Case Scenario:
He joins Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes as the big break out star fantasy football quarterback. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins takes the passing game to the next level, and Murray starts to run a whole lot more, and for more yards. If he can put it all together, finishing as the QB1 is not outside the range of possibilities for Murray.
Worst Case Scenario:
In an insane, flagrant violation of the unwritten rules, opposing players start to bean Murray with footballs due to his past with baseball. Murray is unable to play while withstanding a gauntlet of pigskins. Failing that, 6’6” 341 pound Jordan Phillips accidentally sits on him and squishes him.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]