Fantasy Football Week 15: Start or Sit Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, or Blake Jarwin?
Chances are, if you’re reading this, you’re in the thick of it. I’m not talking about being trapped under an overly large hookup from the night before, unable to leave since your pants are ten feet away and you’ve got 250 lbs. of regret laying on you. This is the playoffs, baby! Turn it up to 11 and make your lineup the absolute best you can.
Start or Sit Jimmy Graham at Chicago
Graham would have been considered a boom or bust play at one point. Though even a layman can look at his numbers and see there’s not much value there. With Green Bay ditching their head coach, many Packers fans are looking at a possibility of Graham having more of a role in offensive plays. Though it’s fair to mention that Graham had 11 targets in McCarthy’s final game coaching. He dropped to only 5 targets a week after, gaining only 13 yards off of his 2 receptions. It looks like his role in the offense hasn’t changed just yet. The thing is, the Packers offense is buzzing right now, coming off their 34-20 win against the Falcons at home. They’re ready to win out the season with some fairly easy games, but this next one certainly won’t be pleasant. Chicago is doing extremely well against tight ends this season, especially in the last several games. No tight end has gone for more than 50 yards all season against them. They’d be ranked higher if they didn’t give up so many touchdowns to the position early on. Luckily, they haven’t allowed one since week 6. In fact, no quarterback has targeted their tight end more than 8 times in any of the games this season against the Bears. It’s a tough decision whether to start or sit Graham this week, I get it. He’s bound to have a good game, right? Certainly not this week. Green Bay will travel to the Jets in week 16 and come home for a fun matchup against the Lions in week 17, and while those plays are definitely appealing, there’s simply not much wiggle room for Graham to do well against Chicago this week. Consider him a sit this week.
Start or Sit Vernon Davis at Jacksonville
You don’t see his name too often, but he’s slowly creeping up the charts. Not in a bad “I’ve got a disease” way, but more like a “HAY YOU GUYS” kind of way, like Sloth from The Goonies. While we’re not going to see Davis save children and talk about Baby Ruth candy bars, we are going to see him quietly slink away for the following three games. Davis has seen some decent production since week 12, where he had 73 yards and a touchdown off of only four targets. His production slowed down in the following two weeks where he was only targeted 6 times total, though he redeemed himself a bit against the Giants with a successful 2 pt. conversion. These last three weeks have given fantasy owners reason to stash him away on the bench, but to be fair, his numbers are liars. Yes, he’s seen a decent amount of points in the last three weeks. Yes, he’s hauled in 80% of his passes in that timespan. But no. Just no, don’t think too hard about whether to start or sit Vernon Davis. Your targets are too low and you’re simply too touchdown dependent. Jacksonville isn’t perfect at defending against tight ends, but Vernon simply doesn’t get enough attention to consider him a threat. He’ll most likely be targeted three or four times, but there’s just not he can do. While the Jags do give up a fair amount of touchdowns to tight ends, I simply don’t see the Redskins targeting him very much in the remainder of the season. Vernon Davis is a definite sit this week.
Start or Sit Blake Jarwin at Indianapolis
This might be a no-brainer, but I’ve actually heard a considerable amount of discussion regarding whether to start or sit Jarwin in light of his potential killer performance this week. I think it’s time to ground ourselves a bit. Jarwin is obviously not a major piece of the Cowboy’s offense, but last week he was targeted 7 times and brought them all in for 56 yards. The Cowboys are going through what some might consider a ‘blooming’ period where Dak is coming a bit more alive on a 5 game win streak and the offense is waking up. It’s easy to assume Jarwin will be targeted a fair amount in this next game. At this point in the season, it’s just too risky to play him. He could be targeted ten times or zero, you just don’t know. Indianapolis hasn’t allowed a touchdown to the position since week 8. Jarwin is the kind of guy who needs more than open field targets to make him a viable play this week. Last week’s performance was great, yes, but it’s just not guaranteed at this point that he’ll see any sort of attention from Prescott. Tight ends are extremely tempting when it comes to changes of tempo. Offenses realize sometimes that teams aren’t doing a great job at guarding the position against the pass and will work their tight ends into the offensive scheme on a game-to-game basis, but I just don’t see Jarwin getting much attention for the remainder of the season. His extremely low floor and low ceiling makes him a sit this week.
Playoff teams certainly don’t need to be playing in the muck. One position can ruin your entire season at this point, so choose wisely. These three might be an easy pass for many, but the position is simply difficult for many who haven’t locked down a reliable tight end to play each week. If you find yourself in the unfortunate position of streaming a tight end this week, avoid these three at all costs. There are certainly better options.
If you’re pretty set on these three, I’d rank them as:
1. Jimmy Graham
2. Blake Jarwin
3. Vernon Davis
Looking for more week fifteen start or sit advice? Check out our additional pieces below!
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