Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Another week of .500 picks again, as we stared down an incredibly weird week of matchups that found several starting QBs injured (RIP all my summer best ball teams) and a bunch of wild games. The league is a mess right now, and while part of me loves the chaos, my money tends not to. Here’s hoping for an undefeated week to silence the critics (my own paralyzing self-doubt).
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-112)
The Panthers showed the heck up last week en route to sinking my sound financial advice. Like the future forecast for all of my AMC stock, I don’t envision the good times lasting in Carolina. Carolina hemorrhages yardage on the ground, and Shane Steichen’s offense boasts two running backs averaging over 50 yards a game, Taylor’s average is only going to climb, while Moss looks like one of the better secondary options in the league. The Colts just have too many weapons for the Panthers to keep up with, and when they get the lead all they have to do is KEEP POUNDING and we’re good to go.
Miami Dolphins Moneyline (+106)
“A spectre is haunting Europe- the spectre of a Matt Nagy offense.”
-Karl Marx, 1848.
There’s no denying that this is a potential AFC Championship matchup, but being played early in the morning in Germany. The Dolphins left Miami on Tuesday, giving their team time to acclimate to the change, while the Chiefs left Thursday night, trying to keep their schedule as close to normal as possible. We’ve seen teams that leave for Europe later in the week go 0-2 this season (Atlanta and Jacksonville left at the same time), and with an offense that has been slower than usual about to approach a track meet, I think the Dolphins moneyline is a wise investment at plus odds.
Los Angeles Chargers/New York Jets Under 40.5 (-115)
I usually try to limit these article bets to Sunday games on principle, but this spread is just too good to pass up. The Jets play at the lowest pace over expectation, while the Chargers are 5th in that same category. The respective strengths and weaknesses here seem to align perfectly: the Jets can’t pass and the Chargers can’t stop the pass, the Chargers need to throw to win, and the Jets secondary is elite. If this game hits the over, one team’s strength overcomes the other, and for a game that might not be fun for the casual viewer, it’ll provide a lot of insight into who truly dominates at their respective facets of the game.
Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (+138)
The Pack being home favorites this week makes a lot of sense, with injuries to Matthew Stafford making the Rams closer to last year’s late-season abomination than this year’s early-season curiosity. However, when you have an inexperienced quarterback and still win, it tends to fall on the shoulders of the running game, and the Rams have a great matchup on the ground this week. Add to this the injuries and surprise trade of Rasul Douglas, and there’s a chance the Rams come into Lambeau and blow the doors off the place. With the odds Vegas is giving, it’s worth a shot.
Last Week: 2-2
Season Total: 19-13 (2-6 on Long Shot Plays)