Week 11 had some ups and downs this week, with Justin Fields getting carted off the field at the end of the game, and Wan’Dale Robinson getting carted off in the middle, and D’Andre Swift disappearing completely. At the same time, you had guys like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Demarcus Robinson break out. Let’s take a dive into some of the things that we saw in week eleven, and figure out if these are things that we should worry about or not. Let’s dive into week eleven’s absurdity checks!
Did Antonio Gibson Take the Job Back?
If you just read the box score, you see that Antonio Gibson finished week eleven with 18 carries and 3 receptions for 103 total yards. Brian Robinson, conversely, had just 15 carries for 57 yards and no targets or touchdowns in this one. It’s not just there where Gibson dominated. According to Michael Florio of NFL Network, the Commanders gave Antonio Gibson 67% of snaps, and Brian Robinson just 34%. Since that spot, however, we’ve seen Antonio Gibson overtake the snap share. Gibson was +11% and +16% in weeks 8 and 9, before they split snaps nearly evenly last week, with Gibson getting 48% of snaps, and Robinson getting 52% of snaps. With this game breaking down at a rough two-to-one snap share in favor of Gibson, combined with Brian Robinson going into the week as the least efficient running back on a yards-per-touch basis in the whole NFL means that the days of leaning on Robinson are, likely, over.
This doesn’t mean that Gibson is staring at 100 yards every game. The Texans are the best matchup in the league, allowing the most fantasy points per game. But, he’s set to finish as a top-24 running back on the week, which will make the sixth-straight week that he’s been top-30, and the fifth time in six games that he’s finished as an RB2 or better. Gibson should continue to get a bigger share of the workload and get the high-value targets that make him much more valuable in a PPR league, especially compared to Robinson. James Robinson offers no receiving upside, and if you’re in a full-PPR league, his 57 yards on no receptions gave him fewer fantasy points than guys like Justin Jackson, Dontrell Hilliard, and Justice Hill, who are all widely available on waivers. You can move on from Robinson, if needed, in your PPR leagues.
Is Demarcus Robinson the Baltimore Wide Receiver to Roster?
From a Robinson who had a bad day, to a Robinson who had a great one. Demarcus Robinson finished week eleven with 21.8 PPR points thanks to catching 9 balls for 128 yards. Should things go as expected, he’s ending the week as a top-twelve receiver (pending Monday Night Football). This came after everyone ran towards Devin Duvernay thanks to his 54-yard, two-touchdown week one output. Unfortunately, that doesn’t offer him much in the way of reliability, as Duvernay now has 9 targets for 81 yards over his last four games after his hot start. Yet, Duvernay is 61% rostered and Demarcus Robinson is sitting at a cool 4% roster rate.
Unfortunately for those who roster Duvernay and not Robinson, you’ve had it all wrong. Before his 9 targets, 128-yard breakout yesterday, Robinson was still the receiver to roster in Baltimore. He now sits at eight or more targets in two of the last three games, and he’s finished both of those two games with at least 12 PPR points. Duvernay has had one game over 6.5 PPR points since October 10. Devin Duvernay is droppable, and you should drop him… for Demarcus Robinson.
Does Tyler Allgeier Limit Cordarrelle Patterson’s Upside?
Cordarrelle Patterson is now three weeks into his return from injury, and in those three games, he has two touchdowns (three if your league counts return touchdowns toward the running back’s total). But, he struggled to produce outside those scores, totaling just 4 total catches since his return from injury, and notching 14, 6, and 12 touches for an average of just over 10 touches per game. That’s given him an average of 44 yards per game since his return, and given that he doesn’t catch the football anymore (because they don’t throw the football), that means that you’re basically waiting around for him to score a touchdown to justify using him in a given week. This likely stems from the Falcons watching him fall apart down the stretch last season (10 att, 2 receptions per game for 43 yards per game in the last six games as the “lead back”) that led them to draft Allgeier.
With Allgeier in tow, the Falcons have a valid 1B RB to go with Cordarrelle Patterson… if you could even call it that. In the three games since Patterson returned from injury, Allgeier and Patterson have the exact same number of touches (32), and 190 yards compared to Patterson’s 132 yards (63.3 yards per game). The Falcons did this same thing with Patterson last year, limiting his touches after his injury (13 touches per game after he missed week 11 due to injury in 2021). The Falcons are doing this because they don’t care about your fantasy team. They care about winning. They don’t do that, either, but apparently, that’s what they care about.
Can We Start a Jets’ Running Back Anytime Soon?
When the Jets acquired James Robinson from the Jaguars to replace Breece Hall, I, and others, worried about what their splitting touches might mean vis-à-vis their fantasy football value falling through the floor. The worst fears of the biggest worrywarts came true in week eleven, with Robinson and Michael Carter finishing with a combined 16 touches for 27 yards, with Michael Carter getting 9 touches for 17 yards, and James Robinson getting 7 touches for 10 yards. Neither worked out very well, mostly because the Jets moved the ball two yards in the second half. Not per drive, not per play. Two yards. Total. While the Patriots dominated the Jets’ offense, this portends a more dangerous trend for trying to start either of them going forward: the Jets have a low-upside rushing offense, and they split the touches almost down the middle.
Since losing Breece Hall, the Jets’ one-two punch averages a total of 61 yards per game… between them. An individual Jets running back has topped 76 total yards once in the last four games since Robinson and Carter joined forces. In addition, the Jets’ offense is struggling, so the three combined touchdowns they had in week nine against Buffalo are the exception, not the norm. At best, Carter and Robinson are flex players as long as they are both healthy. But, in all likelihood, they are actually just roster clogs at this point.