It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with tight ends. Today, we take a look at a tight end who smashed all rational expectations his rookie season, but still fell short of more exuberant over expectant fantasy managers. What can we expect from Kyle Pitts in his sophomore campaign?
Kyle Pitts ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: TE3, 31 overall
Average Auction Value: $16.6
Kyle Pitts Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 17 | 15 | 110 | 68 | 1026 | 1 | 6.47 | 4.00 | 61.8% | 9.33 | 15.09 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 108.6 | 142.6 | 176.6 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 0.99 | 1.30 | 1.61 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1188 | 10.8 | 313 | 2.85 | 4.60 | 30% | 20% |
2022 Kyle Pitts Fantasy Football Overview:
By all objective, real-life football measures, Kyle Pitts had a dominant rookie campaign. The 2021 #4 overall pick finished with 110 targets, 68 receptions, and 1,026 yards. But, he had a historically productive tight end season, as his targets, receptions, and yards all rank inside the top three for rookie tight ends, ever. So why was he a disappointment for fantasy football? Unfortunately, a moribund Atlanta Falcons offense caused him to finish with just one touchdown.
Some want to tell you that had he had more touchdowns, then he would have been a good pick at TE4 last season. Unfortunately, that’s not correct. If Pitts had 10 touchdowns instead of 1, he would have (1) been the league leader and (2) finished as TE5 in PPR points per game. Pitts finished 2021 with 176.6 fantasy points, and an additional 9 touchdowns would have given him 230.6 fantasy points, across 17 games. This moves him from 10.4 PPR points per game to 13.5 PPR points per game, and just behind Dalton Schultz’s fourth-ranked 14.1 PPR points per game in 2021.
So, what happened? Unrealistic expectations, that’s what happened. Kyle Pitts was just as good as advertised, but we failed to account for the Falcons being an utter disaster of a football team. But, there are signs of life here for Kyle Pitts headed into 2022 fantasy football leagues.
First, the offense got some supporting weaponry, with Drake London, Tyler Allgeier, and Damien Williams replacing Russell Gage, Mike Davis, and Wayne Gallman. That’s an across-the-board improvement. The only problem here is the definite passing downgrade from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota. But, I still feel good about Kyle Pitts. After all, he had one of the best tight end seasons, ever. And people are trying to get worried about him because he didn’t surpass our unrealistic expectations.
That having been said, his ADP worries me (though his salary cap value does not).
2022 Kyle Pitts Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Kyle Pitts Salary Cap Value: $30
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Kyle Pitts is, regrettably, once again, going at his ceiling. He’s currently TE3 in fantasy football drafts, pick 31 overall. I literally just pointed out that if he led the league in touchdowns last year, he still would have been TE5. Once again, those in the community who want to draft Kyle Pitts are talking themselves into how the sky is the limit for him, he just needs an opportunity to show it. Okay, chill, that’s taken as read. But also, the Falcons are still a disaster, and last I checked, a touchdown is still worth 60 yards. Taking Kyle Pitts at TE3 after taking him at TE4 and he fell short of expectations is sort of like someone backing out of a presidential primary before she got zero electoral votes in her own state and becoming the current Vice President of the United States of America. Not to name names or anything. It’s failing upward to put Pitts at 3 when the only positive thing that’s changed about his situation is that he isn’t a rookie anymore.
I’m out on Pitts at TE3 in ADP. But I am in on Pitts as a part of a draft strategy I call “two out of three ain’t bad.” It involves Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and Darren Waller. The goal is to get two of them for less than the price of a Travis Kelce in your draft. It’s incredibly doable, and it’s even possible to get two of the three for less than Mark Andrews. By AAV, Pitts is $16, and Kittle & Waller are both $12 whereas Travis Kelce is $45 and Mark Andrews is $34. Snatch the first two that get nominated for cheap, there. It’s possible to get a smash start TE1 for most weeks for $28, for less than the price of a Mark Andrews, who may or may not be a smash start, given the potential Ravens’ downturn.
So, take two out of three there, because one of them should outproduce Mark Andrews and/or Travis Kelce. And that ain’t bad (I’m sorry I’m sorry I’m trying to delete it).
Best Case Scenario:
Kyle Pitts TE1.
Worst Case Scenario:
Kyle Pitts TE11.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b7/Kyle_Pitts_Falcons_vs_Giants_SEP2021.png, cropped via CC BY SA 2.0]
