It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. Today, we take a look at a wide receiver who received a situational glow up in 2022. Not only did the Broncos trade Drew Lock for Russell Wilson, they also sent Noah Fant away, who was one of Patrick’s prime target competitors. But, will Tim Patrick be useful enough for us to lean into him in our fantasy football drafts? Let’s take a look at his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
TIM PATRICK TORE HIS ACL AND WILL BE OUT FOR THE SEASON, DO NOT DRAFT HIM
Tim Patrick ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR60, 144 overall
Average Auction Value: $1.0
Tim Patrick Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 16 | 16 | 85 | 53 | 734 | 5 | 5.31 | 3.31 | 62.4% | 8.64 | 13.85 |
| 2020 | 15 | 15 | 79 | 51 | 742 | 6 | 5.27 | 3.40 | 64.6% | 9.39 | 14.55 |
| 2019 | 8 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 218 | 0 | 1.94 | 1.00 | 51.6% | 7.03 | 13.63 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 103.4 | 129.9 | 156.4 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 1.22 | 1.53 | 1.84 |
| 2020 | 110.2 | 135.7 | 161.2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 1.39 | 1.72 | 2.04 |
| 2019 | 21.8 | 29.8 | 37.8 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 0.70 | 0.96 | 1.22 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 995 | 11.7 | 202 | 2.38 | 3.81 | 26% | 18% |
| 2020 | 986 | 12.5 | 238 | 3.01 | 4.67 | 21% | 17% |
| 2019 | 315 | 10.2 | 38 | 1.23 | 2.38 | 16% | 12% |
2022 Tim Patrick Fantasy Football Overview:
There’s a contingent of people on fantasy football twitter who are all-in on Tim Patrick. There are some of them on the Football Absurdity Podcast. But, I am going to level with you… I don’t see it as anything but a sleeper dart throw, but I like the sleeper dart throw potential of one Mr. Tim Patrick.
Some people would look at the depth chart and just toss aside Patrick, as he’s clearly the #3 receiver there, given the investments in both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. However, the Broncos made an equally strong investment in Patrick, giving him a three-year, $34.5 million extension. That’s probably because Tim Patrick was the man for Denver last season. The 28-year-old led the Broncos in yards per game, yards per catch, and yards per target last season. He’s actually been on the field consistently for Denver, is a strong deep threat (he caught 86% of his passes 20+ yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus), and produces when given the opportunity.
Tim Patrick has also been remarkably consistent for the Broncos, notching 730+ yards and 50+ receptions in each of the last two seasons. My only major fear for Tim Patrick is that he gets Russell Gage Disease, and falls in the “good for real life, just okay for fantasy football” bucket. After all, with all those accolades, he finished as WR59 in fantasy points per game. Let’s say he gets a 25% bump in production moving from Drew Lock to Russell Wilson (which is an insanely generous addition), which still moves him up to WR38 last season in full PPR (12.25 PPR points per game). And that’s with him getting a massive boost in production for no reason other than having Russell Wilson on his squad.
So, I think he falls into the “useful for real life, not so much for fantasy” bucket like 2021 Marvin Jones Jr. MJJ had 70 catches and 800 yards but finished as WR49 in points per game. That’s because he’s the third-best player in that receiver room, and Jeudy & Sutton will need to eat before Tim Patrick if the offense suddenly becomes a fantasy points buffet.
2022 Tim Patrick Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Tim Patrick Salary Cap Value: $1
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
Tim Patrick is free. That’s right, he costs whatever you want to spend on him. Personally, I’m more interested in guys like Alec Pierce, but if you want someone who you think will benefit from a massive QB upgrade, then you can go get Tim Patrick. He’s WR63, pick 147 by ADP, meaning he barely gets drafted in standard fifteen-round, ten-team drafts. In twelve teamers, he’s a thirteenth-round pick (right before the kicker and D/STs). In a salary cap draft, he’s $1. He should be $1. He’s just a flier, and nothing more. If it’s clear that Jeudy & Sutton (and Albert Okwuegbunam, and the running backs, and K.J. Hamler…) are taking too much of the target share to matter, then you should freely cut bait on Tim Patrick.
Best Case Scenario:
Tim Patrick floats on and off the waiver wire all season long and he floats onto your roster for his five useful games.
Worst Case Scenario:
You forget to float Tim Patrick off of your roster when he turns back into a pumpkin.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
If you would like our $7 Draft Kit, then follow this link!
Want more 2022 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
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Podcast!
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2b/WFT_vs._Broncos_%2851651273250%29.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]
