It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the wide receivers. D.K. Metcalf had one of the biggest quarterback downgrades in the league this offseason, going from perennial MVP candidate Russell Wilson to… Geno Smith or Drew Lock? And if he gets really lucky, maybe it will be Jimmy Garoppolo! But, it seems like those drafting Metcalf are completely undeterred by the fact that he lost Russell Wilson when they select him in drafts. Should you be worried? Let’s take a look at D.K. Metcalf in his 2022 fantasy football player profile!
D.K. Metcalf ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: WR18, 45 overall
Average Auction Value: $8.9
D.K. Metcalf Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Rec% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec |
| 2021 | 17 | 17 | 129 | 75 | 967 | 12 | 7.59 | 4.41 | 58.1% | 7.50 | 12.89 |
| 2020 | 16 | 16 | 129 | 83 | 1303 | 10 | 8.06 | 5.19 | 64.3% | 10.10 | 15.70 |
| 2019 | 16 | 15 | 100 | 58 | 900 | 7 | 6.25 | 3.63 | 58.0% | 9.00 | 15.52 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tgt | HPPR Pts/Tgt | PPR Pts/Tgt |
| 2021 | 169.3 | 206.8 | 244.3 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 14.4 | 1.31 | 1.60 | 1.89 |
| 2020 | 188.3 | 229.8 | 271.3 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 17.0 | 1.46 | 1.78 | 2.10 |
| 2019 | 129.1 | 158.1 | 187.1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 1.29 | 1.58 | 1.87 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | YAC | YAC/Tgt | YAC/Rec | AYMS | Tgt MS |
| 2021 | 1636 | 12.7 | 328 | 2.54 | 4.37 | 39% | 28% |
| 2020 | 1668 | 12.9 | 363 | 2.81 | 4.37 | 38% | 25% |
| 2019 | 1296 | 13 | 273 | 2.73 | 4.71 | 26% | 19% |
2022 D.K. Metcalf Fantasy Football Overview:
At this point, we can’t definitively say for sure that D.K. Metcalf or Courtland Sutton is better than the other. After all, Metcalf has had Russell Wilson throwing him the football, and Sutton had Drew Lock. But, much like the completely unhinged 2000s primetime show Wife Swap, Sutton now has Wilson, and Metcalf now has Lock. And the fact that Metcalf has Lock should fill us with more dread than it seems to be garnering.
That isn’t to say that Metcalf struggled without Russell Wilson in the past, in fact, in his three games last season, he averaged more fantasy points without Russell Wilson than he did with Russell Wilson, finishing with 17.2 PPR points per game without Wilson and 13.8 PPR points per game with Wilson in 2021. So, the people who say that Metcalf finished where he did in 2021 did so because of Russell Wilson’s missing time are… well, flatly, they’re wrong. So, I think because of this idea that Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf made sweet music while everyone else just sort of got in the way, we are handwaving away the rest of the D.K. Metcalf profile.
Think of it this way: you’re D.K. Metcalf, and the team that you’re on traded your stud quarterback for Drew Lock and Noah Fant. You then went out and got some offensive linemen and a running back in the draft. You also parted ways with your offensive coordinator before last season because he didn’t want to run the ball more. Would you feel particularly good about your prospects heading into 2022?
2022 D.K. Metcalf Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
D.K. Metcalf Salary Cap Value: $11
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
D.K. Metcalf finished as WR23 last season. Which should be his likely upper projection for 2022. Unfortunately, ADP doesn’t reflect that actuality, as he’s WR18 by AAV ($9.3) and WR15 by snake draft ADP. This is all because we stare lovingly and longingly at D.K. Metcalf, the talent, mostly because we aren’t sure as to what the situation could be around him.
It also feels like some sort of last stand thing for some people in snake drafts, “Metcalf has to be a top-15 wide receiver.” This is despite the fact that Metcalf finished as a top-12 wide receiver just five times last year, and a WR3 or worse 11 times. That’s the picture of D.K. Metcalf that I have: a boom-bust receiver who should stay healthy and play enough games to finish as a WR2. But, that’s not the type of receiver I’m taking at WR15, mostly because he could bust far more than he booms thanks to the quarterbacks at the helm.
In salary cap drafts, I can’t really get mad at someone with Metcalf’s talent level going for 5% of your budget. If you can’t overcome him busting at that price, your team was doomed from the beginning.
Best Case Scenario:
D.K. Metcalf and Drew Lock click and Metcalf finishes as a top-ten wide receiver.
Worst Case Scenario:
D.K. Metcalf and Drew Lock fail to click and Metcalf gets really animated on the sidelines. Old white dudes in suits get very huffy over this, and can’t countenance that maybe D.K. Metcalf is upset because Drew Lock is terrible. That or it’s Geno Smith that draws Metcalf’s ire, and he hires IK Enemkpali to… talk… to Geno.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:D.K._Metcalf.jpg]
