It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Melvin Gordon returned to the Denver Broncos on a pretty nice chunk of change (about $5 million), and it looks as though he’s going to go back to splitting touches with his backfield mate, Javonte Williams. Many in fantasy football circles are ready to move on from Melvin Gordon, but I don’t think the Broncos are prepared to turn the keys over to the young gun just yet. What can we expect from Melvin Gordon in 2022 fantasy football leagues?
Melvin Gordon III ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB36, 101 overall
Average Auction Value: $2.7
Melvin Gordon III Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 16 | 16 | 203 | 918 | 8 | 38 | 28 | 213 | 2 | 231 | 241 | 1131 |
| 2020 | 15 | 10 | 215 | 986 | 9 | 44 | 32 | 158 | 1 | 247 | 259 | 1144 |
| 2019 | 12 | 11 | 162 | 612 | 8 | 55 | 42 | 296 | 1 | 204 | 217 | 908 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 4.52 | 12.7 | 57.4 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 73.7% | 5.61 | 7.61 | 14.44 | 15.06 | 70.7 |
| 2020 | 4.59 | 14.3 | 65.7 | 2.93 | 2.13 | 72.7% | 3.59 | 4.94 | 16.47 | 17.27 | 76.27 |
| 2019 | 3.78 | 13.5 | 51.0 | 4.58 | 3.50 | 76.4% | 5.38 | 7.05 | 17.00 | 18.08 | 75.67 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 167.1 | 181.1 | 195.1 | 10.44 | 11.32 | 12.2 | 0.72 | 0.78 | 0.84 |
| 2020 | 166.4 | 182.4 | 198.4 | 11.09 | 12.16 | 13.2 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| 2019 | 138.8 | 159.8 | 180.8 | 11.57 | 13.32 | 15.07 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
2022 Melvin Gordon III Fantasy Football Overview:
First and foremost, I am not ready to send Melvin Gordon out to pasture, and neither are the Denver Broncos… probably. They brought him back on a $5 million deal after he split reps with Javonte Williams last season. And not only did they split reps, but they also split production almost down the middle. Javonte and Melvin Gordon are almost tied in rushing yards over expectation per touch, yards per touch, juke rate, and breakaway runs. They also split touches almost down the middle, with Melvin Gordon getting 231 touches, in sixteen games, and Javonte getting 217 in the sixteen games they played together.
Javonte Williams is excellent! And I’m not saying he isn’t. I’m saying that Melvin Gordon is also really good, and doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. If their ADP and salary cap draft values were anywhere near each other, then I would be going with Javonte all day long. But they’re hilariously different, and that’s why I love Melvin Gordon this year.
2022 Melvin Gordon III Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Melvin Gordon III Salary Cap Value: $9
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
A couple of years ago, on the Football Absurdity Podcast, we coined the saying, “Nick Chubb may outscore Kareem Hunt, but you can take Nick Chubb at cost and lose or Kareem Hunt at cost and win.” That’s how I feel about Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. Javonte Williams is a top-ten running back in both salary cap ($48) and snake (RB9, 16 overall) drafts. You could do that, or you could get Melvin Gordon for $45 cheaper and 78 picks later (RB34, 94 overall).
This is where Melvin Gordon gets so much of his draft-day appeal. And really, it all comes down to this: there’s not much that has happened in the NFL that shows that Melvin Gordon should cede significant touches to Javonte Williams. So, you can bet a top-ten RB pick that things will suddenly change, I am going to bet an almost-pick 100 pick that things stay exactly the same.
It’s a simple cost-benefit analysis that makes me want Melvin Gordon everywhere, and you should also want Melvin Gordon everywhere, too.
Best Case Scenario:
Things stay the same in Denver and Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams split about 450 touches, en route to both finishing in the top-20 at running back.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Broncos wasted a whole pile of cash by bringing Melvin Gordon back, and your $3 salary cap draft cash ends up being a wasted investment.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f0/Melvin_Gordon_TD_WFT_vs_Broncos_OCT2021.jpg under CC BY SA 2.0]
