It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Today, we take a look at a running back who everyone hoped would break out last year. He did, to a certain extent, before an injury derailed his 2021 campaign. But, now that he’s on a new team (the Miami Dolphins) in another unsure situation, what can we expect from Chase Edmonds in 2022 fantasy football leagues?
Chase Edmonds ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB35, 95 overall
Average Auction Value: $2.2
Chase Edmonds Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 12 | 11 | 116 | 592 | 2 | 53 | 43 | 311 | 0 | 159 | 169 | 903 |
| 2020 | 16 | 2 | 97 | 448 | 1 | 67 | 53 | 402 | 4 | 150 | 164 | 850 |
| 2019 | 13 | 2 | 60 | 303 | 4 | 21 | 12 | 105 | 1 | 72 | 81 | 408 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 5.10 | 9.7 | 49.3 | 4.42 | 3.58 | 81.1% | 5.87 | 7.23 | 13.25 | 14.08 | 75.3 |
| 2020 | 4.62 | 6.1 | 28.0 | 4.19 | 3.31 | 79.1% | 6.00 | 7.58 | 9.38 | 10.25 | 53.13 |
| 2019 | 5.05 | 4.6 | 23.3 | 1.62 | 0.92 | 57.1% | 5.00 | 8.75 | 5.54 | 6.23 | 31.38 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 100.3 | 121.8 | 143.3 | 8.36 | 10.15 | 11.9 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.90 |
| 2020 | 115 | 141.5 | 168 | 7.19 | 8.84 | 10.5 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 1.12 |
| 2019 | 70.8 | 76.8 | 82.8 | 5.45 | 5.91 | 6.37 | 0.98 | 1.07 | 1.15 |
2022 Chase Edmonds Fantasy Football Overview:
First and foremost, let’s take a look at Chase Edmonds, the player. In his eleven games where he didn’t leave after four snaps last season, he averaged 10.5 carries, 4.8 targets, 3.9 receptions, and 81.8 total yards per game. That 3.9 receptions and 81.8 total yards gave him an extremely nice PPR floor to work with, as this amounted to 12.1 PPR points per game before you even considered touchdowns. But therein lies the rub, Edmonds had just two touchdowns last season. This was by design, as whenever Edmonds and the Cardinals would get around the goal line, in would jog James Conner to steal the TD. Edmonds’ one touchdown inside ten yards came in a game without James Conner last year, further supporting that point. In fact, he had just two touches inside the five-yard line when Conner was available, meaning that his touchdowns were never coming.
But, now, he’s in Miami, and… well, his touchdowns probably won’t come there, either. He plays on a roster with Sony Michel, who has 39 touches inside the five-yard line in his career, with 16 of those going for a touchdown. While not perfect, that is a 40% clip, which is a pretty good record for getting touches close to the goal line and turning them into touchdowns. To compare, James Conner scored on 56% of such touches last season. So, Chase Edmonds is probably facing a similar situation he did last season with Michel. Also, I completely sidestepped the Raheem Mostert Problem, because people can just yell “he’ll just get hurt!” But, Michel is someone to contend with in and around the goal line, as well.
So, if the Dolphins use Edmonds like the Cardinals did (and they should), that drastically limits Chase Edmonds’ ultimate upside, but that doesn’t make him useless as a roster glue guy.
2022 Chase Edmonds Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Chase Edmonds Salary Cap Value: $5
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
Despite the lack of touchdown production, Chase Edmonds finished as an RB1 or RB2 more than half the time (again, removing the game where he left after four snaps), as he was an RB1 or RB2 in six-of-eleven games. He only had two games outside the top-36. That’s pretty much the Chase Edmonds role for fantasy football rosters in 2022: he’s a cheap flex or bye week play, whose PPR floor means that he won’t break your team.
And, like usual, pass-catching backs are falling in drafts. Edmonds is the first Dolphins’ running back off the board, and he doesn’t come off the board until pick 98 (RB37) on average. This is after two backs who we aren’t even sure if they will touch the football this year (Michael Carter and Kenneth Walker III), so Chase Edmonds is a slam dunk add there if you’re looking for a guy who could have a J.D. McKissic-style job in Miami. But, he’s also a guy who is pretty replaceable when all is said and done. So, you probably should narrow in on him in salary cap drafts where you can draft him for just a couple of dollars. That investment is much easier to swallow than a top-100 pick (though if you liked McKissic, you should like Edmonds in 2022.
Best Case Scenario:
Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel both suffer season-ending injuries, paving the way for Chase Edmonds SZN.
Worst Case Scenario:
Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel both suffer season-ending injuries, paving the way for MYLES GASKIN SZN, LET’S GO GAS CAN! LET’S GO!!!
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Header Image Source: Chase Edmonds on Twitter]
