It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Today, we take a look at Antonio Gibson, who Ron Rivera once called Christian McCaffrey and now compares to DeAngelo Williams and/or Jonathan Stewart. Say what you want, that has to be a gut check for Gibson. He also has some redoubled backfield competition, with rookie Brian Robinson coming to the team and Washington going out of their way to snatch J.D. McKissic from the jaws of the Buffalo Bills. What can we expect from Gibson in 2022 fantasy football leagues?
Antonio Gibson ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB15, 30 overall
Average Auction Value: $28.3
Antonio Gibson Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 16 | 14 | 258 | 1037 | 7 | 52 | 42 | 294 | 3 | 300 | 310 | 1331 |
| 2020 | 14 | 10 | 170 | 795 | 11 | 44 | 36 | 247 | 0 | 206 | 214 | 1042 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 4.02 | 16.1 | 64.8 | 3.25 | 2.63 | 80.8% | 5.65 | 7.00 | 18.75 | 19.38 | 83.2 |
| 2020 | 4.68 | 12.1 | 56.8 | 3.14 | 2.57 | 81.8% | 5.61 | 6.86 | 14.71 | 15.29 | 74.43 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 187.1 | 208.1 | 229.1 | 11.69 | 13.01 | 14.3 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| 2020 | 166.2 | 184.2 | 202.2 | 11.87 | 13.16 | 14.4 | 0.81 | 0.89 | 0.98 |
2022 Antonio Gibson Fantasy Football Overview:
When Antonio Gibson came into the league as a converted receiver, the rub on him was that he would miss out on passing downs because he was unrefined in pass protection and that he needed some additional work there before they could trust him on third down and in the two-minute drill. Well, that got better in 2021, with Gibson getting just 35 opportunities on third and fourth down, compared to 25 for J.D. McKissic, a reversal from Gibson’s 11 opportunities on third and fourth down in 2020 to McKissic’s 46. Unfortunately, he inefficiently ground out just 100 yards on these 35 opportunities. So, he got the opportunity to produce in that part of his game but didn’t wow anyone.
That’s probably why Washington went out and got Brian Robinson. He can do a lot of what Gibson does on the ground (though he doesn’t do much through the air) and will prove to be a short-yardage banger back to help spell Antonio Gibson. I think that this hurts Gibson on the goal line, but he had just six goal line touches last year, so he isn’t missing out on too much.
But, Gibson was legitimately good as a running back last year, evading the fifth-most tackles in the league en route to the eighth-most breakaway runs (per PlayerProfiler.com). He also ranked sixth in rushing yards and tenth in yards per route run. While he wasn’t as prolific as many had hoped he would be, he was still incredibly solid as a running back.
Gibson also turned it on after Washington’s bye week. He was nursing a couple of shin injuries, and to that point had just 14 carries for 55 yards per game, and 2 catches for 18 yards per contest (though with just one game over 20 receiving yards). The rest did him some good, as after the bye week, Gibson averaged 18.4 carries for 74 yards, and 3.1 catches for 18.8 receiving yards per game (with 4 games over 20 receiving yards).
2022 Antonio Gibson Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Antonio Gibson Salary Cap Value: $30
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
Many think that Gibson could take a step back and to be honest, I don’t really see it. Unfortunately, I don’t see him taking much of a step forward, either. Gibson sort of is what he is at this point, as the Commanders don’t seem exceptionally keen on growing his role in the offense, as they did what they could personnel-wise to ensure that did not happen. Ultimately, if Gibson stays the same, he’s going to be RB17 again, like he was last year. That makes his RB15 price ($1.50 less than Saquon Barkley and $2.50 more than Ezekiel Elliott a bit hinky for me), he is fine, but he is going around guys who have much more upside and a steadier floor. The name Antonio Gibson still carries some weight in fantasy circles, which is boosting his price point by a few dollars. Personally, I think he belongs next to David Montgomery at just over $25.
It’s even kookier in snake drafts, as he’s RB14, pick 28 off of the board. That’s far too rich for my blood for a guy who is hemmed in on all sides by players who can do what he can also do, just split out into different bodies. Robinson is just as good a runner as Gibson, and McKissic is just as good a pass catcher. There’s value in having both in the same body, but that makes the backfield extremely fungible, and one that I would rather not get into if I can get into Leonard Fournette (RB15 off the board) instead.
Best Case Scenario:
Antonio Gibson casts aside J.D. McKissic and Brian Robinson, and he dominates the backfield touches as Ron Rivera finds the benefit of not splitting all the touches up among three players, and lets Gibson dominate.
Worst Case Scenario:
Antonio Gandy-Golden battled Antonio Gibson as the definitive Antonio G. Gandy-Golden wins and banishes Antonio Gibson to retirement alongside Antonio Gates.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/09/Antonio_Gibson_touchdown.jpg under CC BY SA 2.0]
