It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We continue with the running backs. Today, we take a look at a sophomore running back that everyone thought would be free from the veteran running back ahead of him in the pecking order. We all got ginned up on Javonte Williams’ sauce before the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon. With Javonte and Gordon likely in a timeshare, what can we expect from Javonte in 2022 for fantasy football?
Javonte Williams ADP and AAV:
Average Draft Position: RB10, 16 overall
Average Auction Value: $47.7
Javonte Williams Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2021 | 17 | 1 | 203 | 903 | 4 | 53 | 43 | 316 | 3 | 246 | 256 | 1219 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2021 | 4.45 | 11.9 | 53.1 | 3.12 | 2.53 | 81.1% | 5.96 | 7.35 | 14.47 | 15.06 | 71.7 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2021 | 161.9 | 183.4 | 204.9 | 9.52 | 10.79 | 12.1 | 0.66 | 0.75 | 0.83 |
2022 Javonte Williams Fantasy Football Overview:
Javonte Williams came into the league as one of the most highly-touted running backs of the 2021 NFL Draft. Wait, he wasn’t? Oh, well at least he took hold of the position from a good-but-not-great running back last season, fulfilling his upside? Oh, he didn’t do that either? Well, at least he broke a lot of tackles and created a ton of yards per touch, so we love him!
Javonte Williams has some warts (his breakaway run rate is iffy, thanks in part to amazing short-area agility giving way to subpar long speed), but he is one of the best running backs at making a guy miss in a phone booth in the league, the sixth-most evaded tackles and the seventh-most yards created per touch. Unfortunately, he has trouble with the first step, as he had the seventh-most stuffed runs in the NFL, as well.
I can feel in my soul that the Javonte Williams fight will be the next thing to tear apart the fantasy football community. He was in a clear timeshare with Melvin Gordon last season, and Melvin Gordon returned (for a pretty penny), indicating that he should… still be in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon this season.
Because, here’s the thing: Melvin Gordon has a lot of the same under-the-hood statistics as Javonte Williams, except Williams also gets targets and Gordon gets the touchdowns. Where Javonte Williams was sixth in evaded tackles, Melvin Gordon was seventh. Where Javonte Williams had 0.51 rushing yards over expectation per carry (18th), Melvin Gordon had 0.61 rushing yards over expectation per carry (17th). They’re essentially, at this point, very much a similar player, with Javonte Williams doing very little to separate himself from Melvin Gordon.
But Melvin Gordon was seen as just an annoying gnat of a player to Javonte Williams stans, instead of a true threat to his production. And, in that regard, not much has changed in 2022. I like Javonte Williams as a player, mostly because I like Melvin Gordon as a player, and much like the two pictures of the Dunder-Mifflin building, they’re the same picture.
2022 Javonte Williams Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Javonte Williams Salary Cap Value: $50
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming in early July)
If you love Javonte Williams so much, just go get Melvin Gordon later. It’s not that hard of a plan. They split touches almost down the middle last year, with, again, Gordon getting the touchdowns and Javonte Williams getting the catches. So, given that Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are shockingly closer than you thought, you have a decision ahead of you: do I want to bet that this changes, or do I want to bet that this stays the same?
Before you answer that question, let me give you the buy-ins. The buy-in for betting that things change is your #16 pick or $48 of your $200 salary cap budget. The bet that things stay the same is Pick #93 or $3 of your $200 budget. I think you know where I’m going with this one: if you want to get Javonte Williams, pay the price for the upside without paying the price for the downside and just go get Melvin Gordon, instead.
Best Case Scenario:
Javonte Williams takes over the vast majority of the touches from Melvin Gordon, and he returns on the price you spent on him.
Worst Case Scenario:
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams stay in a 50/50 split and you wasted $40+ on Javonte Williams.
Check out all our 2022 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f0/Javonte_Williams_2021_%2851650645333%29_%28cropped%29.jpg, Cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]
