Every summer, we take a deep dive into the fantasy football average draft position (ADP) of players on each real-life NFL team. We do this so that we can determine which guys are undervalued, overvalued, or valued just right. As we Goldilocks this ADP, our draft board forms based on our opinions of players and where they go in fantasy football drafts. Since drafters draft (mostly) by site algorithms, site algorithms drive ADP on that site. So, we use FantasyPros’ aggregate average draft position data in order to smooth out those edges. To really smooth out the edges, I will use half-PPR average draft position, which you can find here.
The New York Jets didn’t have 2021 go as they had hoped. With the #2 overall pick last year, they took Zach Wilson, and he fell on his face a bit in year one. This year, they gave him Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and the C.J. Uzomah/Tyler Conklin power duo and got him a bunch of offensive line help. So, he should hopefully step into his own this year. What can Zach Wilson and the Jets do for our fantasy football prospects? Well, let’s take a look at their sleeper, breakout, and bust for 2022 fantasy football!
Sleeper: Garrett Wilson, Wide Receiver (WR50, 124 OVR)
Look, I get it. The Jets’ passing game wasn’t all that great last year. But, Garrett Wilson is really good! The Jets took Wilson with the tenth pick in the draft and got the potential next Stefon Diggs with the pick. Wilson was the WR1 for an Ohio State team that also featured #11 overall pick Chris Olave and likely top-ten pick in next year’s draft, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. So he wasn’t just good in college, he was clearly better than two guys who have or will go within the first eleven picks in back-to-back drafts.
There’s little doubt in my mind that Garrett Wilson will lead the Jets in targets and air yards this season, but unfortunately, they will come from Zach Wilson, who I’m still not sold on. Luckily, most other people aren’t quite sold on Zach Wilson at this point, either. You can snag him in the tenth round in your draft to see what his upside might be. He could be the next big rookie wide receiver, and you can get him for almost nothing.
Breakout: Breece Hall, Running Back (RB21, 44 OVR)
This one is definitely going to change, and I had to go back and double-check that I hadn’t written it down wrong. I then thought it was noise, so I went to Underdog ADP, which is a best-ball site and tends to be where the “sharps” draft in June, and nope, he’s RB19 there, too, as the 51st player off the board. This is going to be a massive steal, and I almost didn’t include Breece Hall in my list because I thought that he was going to be listed as a top-ten back everywhere. Hall was the most well-rounded back in the 2022 NFL Draft class, and the Jets took him with the fourth pick of the second round this draft, and promptly took Michael Carter and firmly planted him as the team’s RB2 (more on him in a second).
Breece Hall’s versatility will be an interesting study to see if the Jets can integrate him into the offense fully. The Jets threw to the running back 22.3% of the time, but 58 of these came in a four-game span with Joe Flacco and Mike White under center. So it isn’t really a Jets problem, it’s more of a Zach Wilson problem. Wilson, a scrambling quarterback, threw the ball to the running back just 67 times in 13 games, or a 17.4% target rate. That would tie him with the Bears for the ninth-lowest running back target share in the league. If they can integrate him as a target in the passing game, I have little doubt that he ends up as a top-fifteen running back this year.
Bust: Michael Carter, Running Back (RB31, 86 OVR)
I get if you still want to believe in Michael Carter. Well, buckle up Fox Mulder, because I have some bad news for you. Just like Samantha Mulder’s kidnapping was actually an earthly plot by shadowy figures to manipulate humanity, so too, is Michael Carter’s downfall completely manufactured through no fault of his own. Michael Carter is good, don’t get me wrong. I’m not poo-pooing Michael Carter. But, he earned every bit of the fact that he was a fourth-round pick last year and will now be on the short-end of a platoon. Again, I’m not saying he’s bad, after all, you can’t really average about 70 yards per game if you’re bad. The only problem here is that he isn’t nearly as good as Breece Hall, and therein lies the rub, along with his ADP. Only nine running backs get drafted between Breece Hall and Michael Carter, and that isn’t something that makes a whole lot of sense when you figure that Hall is likely to step into the Jets as the 70% back. I will be more than happy to take a shot at Carter if he slips about 20 picks by ADP, but at pick 86, I just can’t do it. The upside at the price point just isn’t really there.