It’s never too early to do a sleeper or a bust list. Basically, as soon as experts start to put out their rankings, we can start to see patterns and ebbs and flows develop. After all, for the 95% of people who aren’t on fantasy football Twitter in February, these rankings will make the draft lists come August. But, nothing is perfect. That’s why we are going to take a look at FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings to suss out some sleepers and busts for the 2022 fantasy football season. Is it too early for QB busts? Probably! But, here they are, anyway.
2022 QB Bust: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (QB3, 56 Overall)
Stop me if you’ve heard this story before. Kyler Murray started last season on fire, averaging 285 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick per game while rushing for 18 yards per contest. The Cardinals were 7-1 in his starts. Then, he suffered an injury, and when he returned, he lost nearly 35 yards per game passing and nearly a touchdown per contest. Only an inexplicable jump in rushing saved his fantasy managers, as he averaged 40+ rushing yards per game upon his return. The Cardinals went 2-4 in these games. This was the same story as 2020: 264 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick per game before injuring his shoulder (5-2 record), and then 236 passing yards, 1.4 touchdowns, and 0.6 picks per game (3-6 record).
Murray needs to show me that he can do it for a full season before I feel comfortable plucking him off the board in my top-three quarterbacks.
2022 QB Bust: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (QB11, 99 overall)
Now, don’t get me wrong; Jalen Hurts was fantastic for fantasy football managers who put him on their rosters in 2021. He was among the league leaders in top-ten quarterback weeks. Unfortunately, he couldn’t put that into top-level production, finishing as a top-five quarterback just three times last year. That’s the problem with Hurts; he doesn’t have the high-level production capabilities of other quarterbacks.
Now, this doesn’t specifically mean that it’s Jalen Hurts’ fault. But, Hurts doesn’t have the best weaponry around him to make it all work. Dallas Goedert is fine, and DeVonta Smith had himself a nice little rookie year, but as of right now, there’s no guy that will help Hurts’ fantasy football stat line tick. You’re drafting the QB11 at QB11, which isn’t necessarily a bust, but not necessarily a pick full of value at this point. Should the Eagles do anything to change their receiver corps (which they should, given their draft picks), then this will change, as well.
2022 QB Bust: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (for now) (QB12, 102 Overall)
This one is really easy. Deshaun Watson sat out all of 2021 and has had absolutely zero public movements in his nearly two-dozen credible sexual assault allegations. He also is a man without a home, as the Texans are hellbent on either maximizing return for Watson or eating his salary. With the QB market heating up with guys like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo on the move, Watson might end up somewhere that can’t maximize his potential. That is if he even plays. There are simply too many factors going against Deshaun Watson this season for me to even have confidence that he plays 11 games, let alone that he finishes as QB11.