It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We’ve run through 20 quarterbacks, 40 running backs, and 50 wide receivers! Let’s turn our attention to the position some hate so much they want to ditch it entirely. That’s right, it’s time for the tight end fantasy football previews! 2021 Robert Tonyan has a lot about his 202 season that leads me to not wanting him. Let’s look under the hood a bit.
Robert Tonyan ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): TE14, Pick 148
Average Auction Value: $1.5 (T-TE11)
Robert Tonyan Statistics:
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tgt||HPPR Pts/Tgt||PPR Pts/Tgt|
|Year||Air Yards||aDOT||YAC||YAC/Tgt||YAC/Rec||AYMS||Tgt MS|
2021 Robert Tonyan Fantasy Football Overview:
There’s a lot to like about Robert Tonyan if you stare directly at fantasy points per game. He finished as TE5 last season, one of just five tight ends to average 10+ half-PPR fantasy points per game. He ended the year leading the position with 11 touchdowns (tied with Kelce). It all looks well and good at the surface level, but, unfortunately, things sort of fall apart from there.
Since targets became a tracked statistic (1992), 36 tight ends have double-digit touchdown production in a season. Only five players have done it on fewer than 70 targets, and Tonyan leads the position in the race to the bottom with just 59 targets. This cannot sustain in 2021. Also of note, he caught 52-of-59 passes, for an 88.1% reception rate. Since 1992, he is the only tight end to top 85% on more than 50 targets. Only 21 tight ends in the history of catch rate have a catch rate over 88% on more than 10 targets; Tonyan is the only one to do it on more than 29 targets.
2021 Robert Tonyan Draft Strategy:
In addition to the above, Tonyan isn’t really all that astounding as a tight end. He’s just a tad light for the position, and his height doesn’t particularly make up for it. While he isn’t very agile, he does boast an elite RAS composite speed grade. So, he can run straight? There isn’t much here to support a big Bob Tonyan breakout continuing. Enjoy what you had in 2020, but 2021 Robert Tonyan isn’t the water where I plan to dip my toe.
This all reeks of an easy fade, to me. He has a historically high touchdown rate, as well as a historically high catch rate. His role in the offense is unlikely to grow to accommodate natural regression. The Packers added Amari Rodgers in the draft, and expect a bigger cut of the pie for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Robert Tonyan’s 2020 production feels like a house of cards, and the reality of 2021 will come as a big gust of wind, crushing Tonyan drafters’ dreams.
Best Case Scenario:
Tonyan continues his historic pace in both receiving rate and touchdown rate and turns in another top-five tight end season.
Worst Case Scenario:
Notice how I didn’t mention Aaron Rodgers moving on to another squad once?
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f3/Robert_Tonyan.jpg, under CC BY SA 2.0]