It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We finished our quarterbacks already; that means it’s time to get to the most frustrating position! That’s right, we’re on to the running backs. Today we take a look at a hyper-elite running back, and who might be the best pass-catching running back of all time. What can we expect from 2021 Alvin Kamara for fantasy football?
Alvin Kamara ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): RB4, Pick 4
Average Auction Value: $62.9 (RB4)
Alvin Kamara Statistics:
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|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tch||HPPR Pts/Tch||PPR Pts/Tch|
2021 Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Overview:
How you feel about 2021 Alvin Kamara pretty much comes down to what you remember about 2020 Alvin Kamara. I remember him scoring six touchdowns on Christmas, but a lot of other people remember that he had six targets through the first three games with Taysom Hill last year. Those people also conveniently forget that he had a foot injury and also had ten targets in his fourth game with Taysom Hill last season.
I guess the long and the short of it with Alvin Kamara is that I’m not worried about Taysom Hill. If Michael Thomas doesn’t bounce back in a big way in 2021, then Alvin Kamara is the best player on the Saints’ roster by about seventeen country miles. Sean Payton loves to prove that he’s the smartest man in the room, but the room for error in doing that falls off a cliff when you no longer have Drew Brees to fall back on. That tells me that we are going to see a lot more games like Kamara’s ten-target Eagles game than the previous three games.
Kamara struggled overall in those games, ending up with just 72 yards per contest while scoring three times in four games. In the end, he really only had one “bad” game (12 touches, 52 yards against Denver). If only there was some sort of alternate explanation for Kamara struggling in those first three Taysom Hill games, and not the final one, like some sort of foot injury that he had, which he showed up on the injury reports for. If only!
2021 Alvin Kamara Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
This is simple: if he’s there, and you want him, take him. It’s not difficult calculus for a guy who goes somewhere between RB2 and RB6 in most drafts. Taysom Hill straight up doesn’t scare me, but I do acknowledge an overall contraction of the Saints’ offense, so he ends up around RB4 for me, depending on how I feel. I wouldn’t take him over Christian McCaffrey or Dalvin Cook, but from there, it’s all personal preference. If Saquon’s injury scares you, and if you don’t believe Derrick Henry can keep his workload, and if you think Jonathan Taylor is being overdrafted from smashing the Jaguars, then take Kamara at 3. If you don’t believe any of those things, then take him as your #6 running back.
2021 Alvin Kamara is in a tier of running backs who are eminently talented who all have some sort of wart. It depends on which wart scares you and which wart doesn’t. Just don’t do anything crazy like taking Travis Kelce in the top-five, and you can’t get upset about your pick. This tier of running backs is all about your personal calculus, and about what scares you. Personally, Alvin Kamara’s production with Taysom Hill doesn’t bother me, given he also dealt with a foot injury.
Best Case Scenario:
He’s still Alvin Kamara.
Worst Case Scenario:
Sean Payton secludes himself in a cabin for three weeks and when he returns, his playbook is all Taysom Hill. He also returns with five Taysom Hill clones. The Saints go 2-14 but gosh does he look clever by using all those Taysom Hill.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: Alvin Kamara on Twitter]