2021 Tom Brady Fantasy Football Player Profile

2021 Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. I continue my portion of the rundown of the position with the Dark Apprentice, who set off on his own after serving under Bill Belichick. Can Tom Brady continue to defy father time and rack up fantasy points for our fantasy football teams?

2021 Tom Brady ADP & AAV:

Average Draft Position: QB10, Pick 73
Average Auction Value: $3.7 (QB9)

Tom Brady Statistics
Year G GS Att Comp Comp% Yds TD Int Att/G Comp/G Yds/G TD/G INT/G
2020 16 16 610 401 65.7% 4633 40 12 38.1 25.1 289.6 2.5 0.8
2019 16 16 613 373 60.8% 4057 24 8 38.3 23.3 253.6 1.5 0.5
2018 16 16 570 375 65.8% 4355 29 11 35.6 23.4 272.2 1.8 0.7
Year 4 PPTD 6 PPTD 4 PPTD/G 6 PPTD/G Year Rush Ru Yds Ru TD YPC Ru Att/G Ru Yd/G
2020 337.9 417.9 21.1 26.12 2020 30 6 3 0.2 1.9 0.4
2019 263.7 311.7 16.5 19.48 2019 26 34 3 1.3 1.6 2.1
2018 280.3 338.3 17.5 21.14 2018 23 35 2 1.5 1.4 2.2
Year Air Yards aDOT aDOT+ Y/A TD% INT% Sacks Yds/Sack
2020 5427 8.90 1.17 7.60 6.6% 2.0% 21 6.81
2019 4659 7.60 -0.58 6.62 3.9% 1.3% 27 6.85
2018 4503 7.90 -0.28 7.64 5.1% 1.9% 21 7.00

aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average

2021 Tom Brady Fantasy Football Overview:

Tom Brady defied the haters in 2020, having just one senior moment (forgetting downs on Thursday Night Football against the Bears) and throwing multiple touchdowns in 18-of-21 games en route to hoisting yet another Lombardi Trophy. During the regular season, he notched 4,600 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, and… a QB10 (points per game) finish. There’s little to question Brady as an upper-echelon real-life quarterback last season, but one thing holds him back from returning to fantasy football superstardom: he turns 44 before the season starts, and he was a statue when he was young.

It’s a new NFL, and nothing better exemplifies that than Tom Brady ending 2020 with 349.9 fantasy points and a QB7 overall finish. That 349.9 finish would have been top-three in every season but one from 2001 to 2019. If Tom Brady would have finished with that fantasy point total every year of his career, he would have finished as the QB1 every season from 2002 through 2010, and by a wide margin. Ironically, I had to fudge these numbers as he would have finished as QB2 in 2007… to Tom Brady’s 50-touchdown season.

This is the problem with Brady. The man is an amazing real-life quarterback, but for fantasy football, he’s lacking the running component of the top-line guys. He’s still a perfectly fine fantasy football quarterback, but his lack of running limits his fantasy football upside. And before Tom Brady Fans come for me: fantasy football isn’t real life.

2021 Tom Brady Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:

Tom Brady Auction Value: $5
Draft Ranking: Want rankings tailored to your league settings in a Beersheet? (coming early July)

I’m not drafting Tom Brady anywhere. The man had 4,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns and wasn’t a difference maker at quarterback. He is currently going six spots head of Ryan Tannehill. If you get the itch to get a quarterback in that round, go for Tannehill, instead. He’s ascending with Julio Jones, A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry at his disposal. Brady has plenty of weapons but he does not run, so you’re hemming yourself in if you take Brady over upside guys going immediately after him. It’s not just Tannehill; Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow both go within 12 picks of Brady. If you get that itch, just take those guys, instead.

Best Case Scenario:

Tom Brady throws for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, and finishes as QB5.

Worst Case Scenario:

Tom Brady accidentally eats a strawberry, which will cause him to have a reaction similar to staring directly at the Ark of the Covenant.

 

Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here

Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!

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quarterback Beersheets Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers New England Patriots

[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]

Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/de/Tom_Brady_%2850831667973%29.jpg, cropped, under CC BY SA 2.0

About Jeff Krisko

You can follow me on twitter, @jeffkrisko for the same lukewarm takes you read here.

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