It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. I continue my portion of the rundown of the position with a man who has somehow had zero MVP votes in his career. Will the Seattle Seahawks let Russ get back in the kitchen, or is the Let Russ Cook Era over in Seattle?
2021 Russell Wilson ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB6, Pick 59
Average Auction Value: $6.6 (QB5)
Russell Wilson Statistics:
|Year||4 PPTD||6 PPTD||4 PPTD/G||6 PPTD/G||Year||Rush||Ru Yds||Ru TD||YPC||Ru Att/G||Ru Yd/G|
aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average
2021 Russell Wilson Fantasy Football Overview:
The 2020 Seattle Seahawks were a tale of two halves, with the Let Russ Cook Era lasting until week ten, and Brian Schottenheimer and Pete Carroll angrily screaming RUN THE BALL as spittle flew everywhere went from week eleven to the end of the season. Up to (and including) week ten, Wilson was on pace for 4,958 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He also averaged 36.1 yards per game, putting him on pace to come near the second-best rushing season of his career.
Everything was clicking for the Seahawks until the Rams held Wilson to 248 passing yards, zero touchdowns, and two picks on 37 pass attempts. Up to, and including that game, the Seahawks were on pace for a torrid (for them) 594 pass attempts over a sixteen-game season. After that point, however, the Seahawks throttled everything back: Wilson’s pass attempts dropped by just over five per game, and his passing yardage dropped by over 100 yards per game. His touchdowns also took a hit, dropping from 3.1 per game to 1.7.
To put it a different way: Russell Wilson started as 2007 Tom Brady (4,806 passing yards, 50 touchdowns) and ended the year as 2010 Matt Cassel (3,116 passing yards, 27 touchdowns).
The Seahawks talked this offseason about being too predictable and fired OC Brian Schottenheimer. But, then they added a too-old wide receiver in the second round and called it a day with D’Wayne Eskridge and the Rams’ passing game coordinator as their OC. I don’t know what Seattle is doing here, except “letting Russell Wilson make it work.” This has been their strategy on offense throughout most of Pete Carroll’s tenure, so I’m not surprised it’s the tack they take now.
2021 Russell Wilson Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Russell Wilson is an interesting case because he’s QB6, which puts him firmly on the outside looking in of the “potential QB1 class.” At the same time, it feels like QB6 is both his ceiling and his floor. Wilson is just flat-out good, year-in and year-out. He doesn’t miss games, he’s a great quarterback, and he can even run a little bit. If I had to pick a quarterback going in the back half of the top-12 to finish as a QB1, I would go with Wilson. He’s been in the league since 2012, and he hasn’t finished lower than QB11. Wilson is also ranked between QB3 and QB10 in six of his nine seasons. He’s just quietly consistent and productive, so if that’s what you want in your quarterback, go for Wilson.
Wilson has a low chance of cratering, but he also has a low chance of vaulting into the top-five. He’s getting drafted at his ceiling. Since he’s the top of a tier, unless he comes to me at a screaming value, I might just pass on Wilson for someone like Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is going 39 picks later, and they’re likely in the same tier.
Best Case Scenario:
The Seattle Seahawks let Russell Wilson bomb out and he starts the season on fire. Then, fate intervenes to right the universe and he craters in the second half. On the whole of the season, he ends up somewhere between QB5 and QB8.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Seattle Seahawks completely bottom out, and their offense struggles to move the ball. Every fourth quarter, he activates Russell Wilson B.S. While his Garbage Time production isn’t enough for him to save the Seattle Seahawks from losses, it is enough to allow him to finish between QB5 and QB8 on the season.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]