It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. I continue my portion of the rundown of the position with 2020’s first-drafted quarterback in most formats. Can 2021 Lamar Jackson return to his #1 quarterback ways, or was 2020 his new normal?
2021 Lamar Jackson ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB4, Pick 49
Average Auction Value: $11.5 (QB3)
Lamar Jackson Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Att | Comp | Comp% | Yds | TD | Int | Att/G | Comp/G | Yds/G | TD/G | INT/G |
| 2020 | 15 | 15 | 376 | 242 | 64.4% | 2757 | 26 | 9 | 25.1 | 16.1 | 183.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2019 | 15 | 15 | 401 | 265 | 66.1% | 3127 | 36 | 6 | 26.7 | 17.7 | 208.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| 2018 | 16 | 7 | 170 | 99 | 58.2% | 1201 | 6 | 3 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 75.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Year | 4 PPTD | 6 PPTD | 4 PPTD/G | 6 PPTD/G | Year | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | YPC | Ru Att/G | Ru Yd/G | |
| 2020 | 332.8 | 384.8 | 22.2 | 25.65 | 2020 | 159 | 1005 | 7 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 62.8 | |
| 2019 | 415.7 | 487.7 | 27.7 | 32.51 | 2019 | 176 | 1206 | 7 | 6.9 | 11.7 | 80.4 | |
| 2018 | 157.5 | 169.5 | 9.8 | 10.59 | 2018 | 147 | 695 | 5 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 43.4 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | aDOT+ | Y/A | TD% | INT% | Sacks | Yds/Sack |
| 2020 | 3237 | 8.61 | 0.88 | 7.60 | 6.6% | 2.0% | 21 | 6.81 |
| 2019 | 3529 | 8.80 | 0.62 | 7.80 | 9.0% | 1.5% | 23 | 4.61 |
| 2018 | 1288 | 8.70 | 0.52 | 7.06 | 3.5% | 1.8% | 16 | 4.44 |
aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average
2021 Lamar Jackson Fantasy Football Overview:
Lamar Jackson was still a top-ten quarterback last year, a fact many people don’t like. Why? Because you spent a top-20 pick on him last season if you had him on your roster. Jackson saw a contraction in fantasy football production, but we also saw Lamar Jackson’s absolute floor. His passing touchdowns had to come down, nobody has maintained a career 9.0% touchdown rate, which is what Jackson carried in 2019. He contracted to a still elite 6.9% in 2020, but still, people we disappointed.
The biggest knock on Lamar Jackson is that the Ravens don’t pass enough. It’s true, the Ravens faced a 157-target deficiency compared to the average team last year; the largest since deficit since the NFL had 32 teams. The year following bottoming out usually sees a rebound of about 50-60 pass attempts. The biggest leap without changing the quarterback came from the 2018 and 2019 Seattle Seahawks, who added 90 targets between seasons.
I don’t think the Ravens will change their strategy overnight, despite adding Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman. This simply means Willie Snead won’t drop as many passes. Teams can’t change their DNA overnight, and adding weapons will only strengthen the wide receiver corps. I see the Ravens adding targets, but not a ton. I have Lamar Jackson getting to a respectable 27 pass attempts per game in 2021.
2021 Lamar Jackson Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Lamar Jackson Auction Value: $6
Draft Ranking: Want rankings tailored to your league settings in a Beersheet? (coming early July)
I’m firing up Lamar Jackson in a lot of places where I can. He’s the fifth quarterback in the top tier by average draft position right now and is less than $10 in salary cap drafts. He’s a steal and a half at those prices, and I am more than happy to pay them. I’m ending up with Lamar Jackson as QB5 off the board a lot, and he represents the last QB I’m extremely happy to get. Think of him as we think of T.J. Hockenson or Mark Andrews this season: after this spot, things start to get a little hairy.
Best Case Scenario:
The Baltimore Ravens end up fulfilling their promise to pass more and Lamar Jackson ends up around 40-45 total touchdowns, getting the efficiency of his breakout 2019 campaign back.
Worst Case Scenario:
The Ravens somehow pass fewer times than in 2020. Instead, they line up Andrews out wide, jam a bunch of offensive linemen on the field, go double wild cat with Jackson/J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards and rush the ball 60 times per game. They go 2-14 but Lamar Jackson has 2000 rushing yards and 15 rush touchdowns.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/84/Lamar_Jackson_passing_2020_%28cropped%29.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]
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