It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We start off with the quarterbacks. I continue my portion of the rundown of the position with 2020’s QB1 in most formats. Can 2021 Josh Allen return to his #1 quarterback ways, or is a bit of a contraction for the breakout quarterback of 2020?
2021 Josh Allen ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position: QB2, Pick 33
Average Auction Value: $22.5 (QB2)
Josh Allen Statistics
| Year | G | GS | Att | Comp | Comp% | Yds | TD | Int | Att/G | Comp/G | Yds/G | TD/G | INT/G |
| 2020 | 16 | 16 | 572 | 396 | 69.2% | 4544 | 37 | 10 | 35.8 | 24.8 | 284.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 461 | 271 | 58.8% | 3089 | 20 | 9 | 28.8 | 16.9 | 193.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 2018 | 12 | 11 | 320 | 169 | 52.8% | 2074 | 10 | 12 | 26.7 | 14.1 | 172.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Year | 4 PPTD | 6 PPTD | 4 PPTD/G | 6 PPTD/G | Year | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | YPC | Ru Att/G | Ru Yd/G | |
| 2020 | 395.1 | 469.1 | 24.7 | 29.32 | 2020 | 102 | 421 | 8 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 26.3 | |
| 2019 | 288.6 | 328.6 | 18.0 | 20.54 | 2019 | 109 | 510 | 9 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 31.9 | |
| 2018 | 208.1 | 228.1 | 17.3 | 19.01 | 2018 | 89 | 631 | 8 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 52.6 |
| Year | Air Yards | aDOT | aDOT+ | Y/A | TD% | INT% | Sacks | Yds/Sack |
| 2020 | 4800 | 8.38 | 0.65 | 7.32 | 4.2% | 1.8% | 41 | 6.27 |
| 2019 | 4287 | 9.30 | 1.12 | 6.70 | 4.3% | 2.0% | 38 | 6.24 |
| 2018 | 3488 | 10.90 | 2.72 | 6.48 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 28 | 7.61 |
aDOT+ is the quarterback’s average depth of target compared to the league average
2021 Josh Allen Fantasy Football Overview:
Josh Allen was the surprise star quarterback of 2020, and it feels like his star is setting off in the right direction. His legs help support his (pretty darn good) passing ability, which bolsters his fantasy stats. Allen ranked third in QB rushing touchdowns, but just eighth in QB rushing yards. Thankfully, he also ranked fifth in passing yards as well as passing touchdowns. The man was good, no matter how you cut it, which is why he ended the year as the QB1. I think the touchdowns will come down just a hair, but he’s a lock for somewhere in the top-five at quarterback.
2021 Josh Allen Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Josh Allen Auction Value: $10
Draft Ranking: Want rankings tailored to your league settings in a Beersheet? (coming early July)
I’m not ending up with a lot of Josh Allen on my 2021 rosters, it seems. It’s not that I don’t like the player. But the value (QB2, 37 overall), leaves a little bit to be desired. He’s my #4 quarterback, but his tier is elite: Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott. I’m not investing in Josh Allen because he’s the top of this group. The other three quarterbacks all go between picks 47 and 53, suggesting you can use Josh Allen as your trigger to get one of the other three guys.
But you need to get one of these five quarterbacks, because of their legs. If you don’t get one of these five, get a quarterback who can run. Don’t mess around with the statues; the rushing quarterbacks are the wave of the future, and because there are so many now, they’ve gone from luxury to necessity. Josh Allen fits in that mold, but he’s part of a tier that I want to wait for someone else to break into.
Best Case Scenario:
The changeover from John Brown to Emmanuel Sanders opens the passing game even more. Allen can’t build on his completion percentage (69%, nice). But 50 total touchdowns and 5,000 total yards aren’t outside the realm of possibility.
Worst Case Scenario:
Josh Allen and Cole Beasley’s vaccine skepticism leads to the unusual “Buffalo Variant” of COVID-19. Symptoms include a propensity to jump through flaming folding tables and to create airborne phalluses. The NFL cancels their games and forces the Bills to quarantine before the symptoms mutate again: into flaming airborne phalluses.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles as we publish them, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
(Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/Josh_Allen_%2843569465444%29.jpg/800px-Josh_Allen_%2843569465444%29.jpg under https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.en)
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