As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Travis Kelce is consistently the best tight end in fantasy football, but could this be the year that he finally stumbles and does the unthinkable: finishes at #2? Spoiler Alert: probably not. But you already knew that. What should we be doing in 2020 with the annual king of fantasy football tight ends?
Travis Kelce ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: TE1, 17 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: TE1, 20 overall
Average Auction Value: $41
Travis Kelce Statistics:
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| G | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| GS | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Tgt | 136 | 150 | 122 |
| Rec | 97 | 103 | 83 |
| Yards | 1229 | 1336 | 1038 |
| TD | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Tgt/G | 8.5 | 9.4 | 8.1 |
| Rec/G | 6.06 | 6.44 | 5.53 |
| Rec% | 76.8 | 83.5 | 69.2 |
| Yds/Tgt | 9.04 | 8.91 | 8.51 |
| Yds/Rec | 9.037 | 8.907 | 8.508 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Std Pts | 157.3 | 191.6 | 150.5 |
| HPPR Pts | 253.8 | 286.6 | 220 |
| PPR Pts | 254.3 | 294.6 | 233.5 |
| Pts/G | 10.5 | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| HPPR Pts/G | 16.9 | 17.9 | 13.8 |
| PPR Pts/G | 17.0 | 18.4 | 14.6 |
| Pts/Tgt | 1.16 | 1.28 | 1.23 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| Pts/Tgt (HPPR) | 1.87 | 1.96 | 1.91 |
| Year | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
| Air Yards | 1218 | 1401 | 1277 |
| aDOT | 9 | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| YAC | 410 | 552 | 406 |
| YAC/Tgt | 3.01 | 3.73 | 3.33 |
| YAC/Rec | 4.23 | 5.47 | 4.89 |
| YAC% | 33.7% | 41.5% | 39.1% |
| AYMS | 25% | 28% | 31% |
| Tgt MS | 24% | 26% | 24% |
Travis Kelce Overview:
To answer the question in the intro: Yes. Okay, thank you for your time. If you want more details, sure I can toss those your way. Mark Andrews was a top-flight tight end last year due to his usage and touchdowns, but the Ravens didn’t even use him that much. Sure, if he was in on a play, he was probably getting a target (#1 in targets per snap among tight ends). He was also probably getting that downfield (his 20 deep targets also led tight ends), but Andrews ran a route on just 55% of the Ravens’ passing plays last year. Why is that? Probably because Mark Andrews didn’t get more than 57% of the team’s snaps in any game last year.
That’s right, Mark Andrews was a part-time player. You just wouldn’t know it if you looked at the box score. The Ravens traded Hayden Hurst away to the Falcons, which means more time on the field for Mark Andrews. More snaps mean more targets, and more targets mean more production. Everything is set up for Mark Andrews to succeed this year. He will most definitely get less efficient on a per-target basis, but his cut of the pie will grow, giving him more potential production (snaps and targets) to work with.
Travis Kelce Draft Strategy:
Travis Kelce Auction Value: $38
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet! (coming late June)
If you want to pay up for a tight end, get Kelce (or Kittle). That’s it, that’s the strategy. Personally, I’m not going to own either of them, as I recognize that running back falls off a cliff rather quickly this season. Kelce is a great ZeroRB target, as he gives you a leg up at tight end right off the bat. Personally, I’m waiting for the mid-rounds to find the next big breakout tight end, and I’m not paying up for Kelce.
Kelce’s potential downside doesn’t come from a young gun there ready to nip at his heels and steal targets (a la Dallas Goedert to Zach Ertz). There’s one perceived downside to Travis Kelce: age. He turns 31 this season, and will eventually start to show age. Look at all that mealy-mouthed nonsense when describing his age. “Eventually” and “start to show” don’t have me running for the hills when it comes to Kelce, but his price sure does. I’m staying away from Kelce and using my hard-earned draft capital elsewhere.
Best Case Scenario:
He’s TE1 again. Maybe he messes around and challenges the tight end touchdown record. Maybe the TE yardage record. Or maybe he challenges both. Who knows, he’s the best TE. You pay for him to be that, and he is that.
Worst Case Scenario:
Without injuries to Kelce or Mahomes, his worst-case scenario is what, the #3 tight end? He’s too good and the offense is too prolific to try to even pretend to have any doom and gloom when it comes to Travis Kelce. If you want an early-round or high-dollar tight end because you’re sick of the TE carousel, smash that button Kelce.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]
