As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. The Green Bay Packers needed to get Aaron Rodgers some receiving threats in a deep wide receiver draft. So, of course, it makes sense that they took Aaron Jones’ backup in the second round. What should we know about AJ Dillon for 2020 fantasy football?
AJ Dillon ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB59, 193 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB61, 194 overall
Average Auction Value: $1
AJ Dillon Statistics:
Countless jokes at Green Bay’s expense because they drafted him. He’s a rookie, he has no NFL stats!
AJ Dillon Overview:
I was unsure what to think of A.J. Dillon in the predraft process. Ultimately, he ended up as my RB7, in the same tier as Anthony McFarland Jr. He is big and strong, and someone to look out for down the line. Ultimately, however, he needs some seasoning. He needs to get 10% faster or 10% better at vision or shedding tackles to really be something in the NFL. He’s 250 pounds but I saw him go down more than once from a defender desperately clawing at his ankles or shoulder pads. Ultimately, he’s built in the Derrick Henry mold, but the league is looking for more Alvin Kamaras.
Dillon will have a role in 2020, mostly as a battering ram and goal-line back. I don’t see him stealing a ton from Aaron Jones, and looks more like an existential threat to Jamaal Williams than Jones. It seems like 2021 will become the year of Dillon, however, as Jones will become a free agent and the Packers will turn to a ground-and-pound approach (the addition of FB/TE Josiah Deguara tells those paying attention that Matt LaFleur learned a thing or two from Mike LaFleur in the playoffs).
AJ Dillon Draft Strategy:
In redraft leagues, the only real value you can get out of Dillon in drafts is as a handcuff or as an injury upside guy. Dillon was a second-round pick, so the pedigree is there, but it takes two things for a running back like Aaron Jones to lose his job: Jones losing his grip (through injury or just plain being bad) and for the backup to snatch the job. Jones is so firmly entrenched that I don’t feel comfortable with Dillon on my roster in anything shallower than a fourteen-team league. The opportunity for bell-cow status just doesn’t exist as long as Aaron Jones is healthy.
Best Case Scenario:
Aaron Jones suddenly retires, and A.J. Dillon looks like Derrick Henry in the last couple years of his career.
Worst Case Scenario:
Aaron Jones takes all the snaps, and in a limited run, A.J. Dillon looks like Derrick Henry in the first couple years of his career.