As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. Kerryon Johnson once again missed a significant chunk of a season due to injuries. The Lions brought in D’Andre Swift in the draft to help shoulder the load, but is Kerryon Johnson a fantasy football value?
Kerryon Johnson ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB29, 75 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB41, 100 overall
Average Auction Value: $2
Kerryon Johnson Statistics:
Kerryon Johnson Overview:
Through two years, we’ve seen a pattern emerge with Kerryon Johnson. He does well enough with a part-time workload and breaks after he sees any sort of extended run. In 2018 and 2019, he suffered injuries after getting exactly five-straight games of over 50% of the snaps. But, he averaged exactly 100 yards from scrimmage in the 2018 games and 77 yards from scrimmage in the 2019 games. Therein lies the allure of Kerryon Johnson. When Johnson gets carries, he’s good for fantasy football! He only gets a handful of targets, but he can churn out production on a very consistent basis if he gets touches.
But, with the touches come the inevitable injury. So, through two seasons it’s become extremely difficult to trust Kerryon Johnson. That is why the Lions spent a second-round pick on D’Andre Swift; they acknowledge that it’s time to cut Kerryon Johnson’s workload down to something manageable or risk starting Wes Hills again. Swift was, at worst, the #2 running back in the class for the vast majority of draft prognosticators out there. Don’t get it confused; Swift isn’t there to supplement Kerryon, he’s there to replace him.
Kerryon Johnson Draft Strategy:
Why even bother? That’s the way I see it with Kerryon Johnson and his not-long-for-his-squad analog in Indianapolis. Kerryon could form the small side of the platoon, but he doesn’t catch passes, and he doesn’t have the explosiveness to do a lot with a little. He’s also very injury prone. If you’re drafting Kerryon Johnson, you’re hedging against D’Andre Swift. I wouldn’t do that at this point, given that Swift is a mystery box that the coaches are unlikely to permanently bench. So, you draft Kerryon and end up in a headache because Matt Patricia keeps running an ineffective Swift out there, stealing touches? That’s your upside here? I’m passing on Kerryon in all drafts.
Best Case Scenario:
He can play over 50% of snaps in more than five games in a row and doesn’t get hurt. Swift can’t.
Worst Case Scenario:
We get a reprise of his first two seasons in the league, but with Swift solidifying the role and never looking back.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]