As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Raheem Mostert’s enduring legacy will be running roughshod all over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game last season, but does that hide a deeper, darker truth for the 49ers’ running back?
Raheem Mostert ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB26, 67 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB24, 52 overall
Average Auction Value: $14
Raheem Mostert Statistics:
Raheem Mostert Overview:
The story of the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan: run the dang football. It makes sense that people are currently gravitating towards the 49ers’ lead back. But what if I told you that Raheem Mostert isn’t so cut-and-dry the lead back in San Francisco? The 49ers have four backs to choose from: Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, and Jeff Wilson Jr. Using McKinnon as a proxy for now-Miami Dolphin Matt Breida, all of these backs saw significant snaps and touches at points last season. Jeff Wilson Jr. even had a game-winning touchdown, to show how the 49ers will use any back in any situation.
Now, this isn’t to downplay Mostert’s ability. It is, however, to downplay his role with the 49ers. He was the 49ers’ RB touch leader in each of the last five games of the regular season. He had fifteen or fewer touches in every single game. Then, in the NFC Divisional Game, who led the 49ers running backs in touches? If you had Tevin Coleman with 22, you win. In the Championship Game where Mostert rained down nuclear hellfire on the Packers, Coleman had out-touched him 5-4 when he left the game with an injury. When the dust settled, the 49ers’ lead back was Coleman eight times, Mostert eight times, and Breida three times.
There’s also this from Kyle Shanahan, mid-Mostert hot streak:
This is going to be far more of an RBBC in 2020 than people want to admit if 2019 is a blueprint. Trading Breida, seen as handing the reins to Mostert, had more to do with Breida’s fumbles and Jerick McKinnon’s return from injury.
Raheem Mostert Draft Strategy:
I’m staying away from Raheem Mostert at his price. He’s going to be a fine backend RB2 for most of the season, if he remains the 49ers’ lead back and if he stays as efficient as he’s been, then he has top-end RB2 upside. Ultimately, I’m bearish on McKinnon’s RB1 upside. It would take a lot of touchdowns for him to reach that, since being the lead back for the 49ers means that you climbed to the top of the crab bucket. It doesn’t mean you’re the king of the hill, it just means that you’re on top… for now.
Best Case Scenario:
Jerick McKinnon goes his entire contract without being active on game days and Mostert leads a three-headed backfield (whoops I forgot the 49ers have two UDFA running backs that will likely make the practice squad in Salvon Ahmed and JaMycal Hasty).
Worst Case Scenario:
Kyle Shanahan uses a literal dartboard to decide who gets to lead the 49ers in touches that week. Kyle Juszczyk keeps winning. Booger McFarland rejoices.
[Header Image Source: Leonard Fournette on Twitter]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]