As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Touchdown Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have finally freed the NFL from their dastardly grasp. Now that the TB in TB Buccaneers stands for Tom Brady’s, what can we expect from the ageless signal-caller for 2020 fantasy football?
Tom Brady ADP and AAV:
Draft Price: QB13, 109 overall
Average Auction Value: $4
Tom Brady Statistics:
(aDOT+ is the QB’s average depth of target compared to league average)
Tom Brady Overview:
Tom Brady didn’t have the most exciting 2019 campaign. He ended the year scraping past 4,000 yards and failing to throw for at least 25 touchdowns in a full season for the first time since 2006. There are some things to like about his campaign that he can roll forward to Tampa Bay. First, he had a 1.3% interception rate, which, once again, ranks among the league’s best (for reference, the outgoing TB QB, Jameis Winston, had a 4.8% interception rate). He’s still older than dirt and averaged fewer than 200 passing yards per game down the stretch last year, so there are some reservations about how he’ll perform in Tampa Bay. This doesn’t even get into the below-average offensive line that might just get Brady killed.
But Tom Brady has a set of weapons at his disposal unlike any he’s seen for a very long time. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J Howard, and Rob Gronkowski are a heck of a set of passing options. Then you throw in Ronald Jones II and Ke’Shawn Vaughn and you have a whole mess of guys who can do the hard work after Tom Brady gets them the football. That should do him some good for his fantasy football prospects, even though he is undoubtedly on the back-nine of his career at this point.
That having been said, Brady had an extremely low ceiling as the season wore on. He passed 18.5 fantasy points just once after week six, after getting 20+ points in five of the first six games. He finished as QB14 on the season and he earned every bit of that ranking.
Tom Brady Draft Strategy:
Tom Brady shows a big difference between expert consensus ranking on fantasypros.com and his average draft price. Brady is a top-ten quarterback by ECR but is going as QB13 off the board (110 overall). In that part of the draft, you could do a lot worse than one of the best quarterbacks of all time with one of the best sets of players he’s had around him in a while.
Personally, I’m not really reaching for Tom Brady in this situation. He’s going literally one spot before Matthew Stafford by ADP (who was a top-five QB before the injury last year), so there isn’t really a situation where we would recommend snatching up Tom Brady over Matthew Stafford.
Best Case Scenario:
He gets all the good of Jameis Winston under Bruce Arians’ system without any of the bad.
Worst Case Scenario:
He gets all the bad of Jameis Winston under Bruce Arians’ system without any of the good.
[Header Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/36376451@N05/15393928856 under CC BY 4.0]
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]