Super Bowl Odds After Week One of Free Agency

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It is impossible to know when sports will continue. It seems like such a small thing in the grander scheme in our current world. A worldwide pandemic has made the entire world feel very distant, and sports feel unimportant. It’s becoming increasingly likely that our way of life will not come back to normal anytime soon. Realizations like that have me thinking about the future. Looking for something to root for, something to stress out about unnecessarily, and just something to make my mind feel normal, if only for just a few minutes. Then I saw that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 16 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl, and I screamed at the incredulity of it all. For my sanity, and hopefully, for a moment, yours, let’s look at the Super Bowl odds as they stand today.

The Super Bowl Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs
Currents odds: 4 to 1

The Chiefs are good. The Chiefs are young. They have one of the best coaches in the game, but they have one thing going against them. It’s been 15 years since a team repeated as Super Bowl champions (New England, of course). It doesn’t happen that often because the NFL is built for it not to happen that often. The NFL is basically constructed so 12 (14 now) teams get into a Tilt-A-Whirl, it spins as fast as it can, shooting teams off until only one team manages to hang on until the end. Then the next year, half those teams don’t even get another ride.

The Chiefs are in a great division to repeat, with the Chargers feigning to be going into 2020 with Tyrod Taylor as their starter, the Raiders Raidering, and the Broncos paying Melvin Gordon a bunch of money as a way to give Phillip Lindsay the middle finger. They also lucked into a transition period in the league, with Tom Brady having gone to the NFC, Philip Rivers going to the AFC South, and who even knows what the Texans think they are doing.

With that being said, I wouldn’t bet anyone at four to one odds before the season starts. Hell, I wouldn’t bet a team four to one to win the Super Bowl if they started the season 8-0. It’s a bit fatalistic of a viewpoint, but football is a cruel mistress.

Baltimore Ravens
Current odds: 13 to 2

The Ravens tend to get a free pass for how good they usually are. This team drafts on a level that inspires envy in 31 other GMs. Ozzie Newsome was a spectacular general manager, and Eric DeCosta has stepped right in and continued to build an annual contender. They have also both done great jobs of supplementing the draft picks with low risk free agent pickups. Earl Thomas last year was one of the types of moves that might not move the radar when it happens, but shows up on game day.

I’d like to say this team is lacking in wide receiver depth, but they were last year as well and that did not stop Lamar Jackson from posting MVP numbers. They have a four-headed rushing attack that can wear down any NFL defense. If Jackson can make another stride this season with his accuracy, then there is no telling what could be next for this team.

I’m not betting on them yet at six to one odds, but I’m circling the wagon and keeping a close eye on what they do in the draft. You could easily sway me to into this Super Bowl bet.

San Francisco 49ers
Current Odds: 7 to 1

You know how to give a bunch of confidence to your quarterback that just helped cough up a fourth-quarter lead in the Super Bowl a month prior? Correct, you let rumors start to fly around that you are thinking of signing the guy that your quarterback backed up in New England. The 49ers of the past two decades have never been particularly good at keeping things under wraps. Whether they were attempting to actually sign Tom Brady or not is irrelevant at this point. It is terrible optics to their current quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo to know that the team theoretically has him on such a short leash that they might be willing to pull the plug.

The 49ers are elite defensively, and for the most part, have age on their side. Nick Bosa is a world eater. Losing DeForest Buckner hurts, but the 49ers have, and will most likely continue to build their defensive line through the draft. Jimmie Ward came back, which is great for the defense. There really is a lot to like on this side of the ball that checks off all the boxes of a contender.
I just don’t trust the offense. The running back Hydra they are marching out every week is fun and maddening if you are a fantasy football player, but every player involved as injury history, and got lucky with a lot of help on offense last season. The 49ers are contenders, but they definitely don’t fall in line for me with being the Super Bowl favorite in the NFC.

New Orleans Saints
Current Odds: 11 to 1

THIS is the team that should be the Super Bowl favorite. I don’t even low key love the Emmanuel Sanders signing, a BIG LOVE the Emmanuel Sanders signing. Sanders proved to still have a lot in the tank when he was playing for a team that motivated him, as we saw in San Francisco last season. Drew Brees is still out gunslinging, trying to win one more title. Alvin Kamara should be good for a bounce-back year. Michael Thomas is one of the five best Wide Receivers in football. That’s a really, really, really good offense.

They aren’t getting prime Malcolm Jenkins, but by bringing him back into the fold, they have a veteran presence in the secondary that they have sorely been lacking. The rest of the defense is…pretty much the Saints defense we have come to know and tolerate over the years.

They have choked in the playoffs for what feels like a decade, but optimism springs eternal for the team from the Bayou. I’ll be sliding a bet in on the Saints.

“Maybe If I Was Drunk” Super Bowl Contenders

Dallas Cowboys
Current Odds: 12 to 1

Go home Las Vegas, you’re drunk. No, I can assure you I will not be betting on the Dallas Cowboys to win the Super Bowl, and after watching them gleefully try to ejaculate their season down the shower drain last year, I have absolutely zero clue why this line is so low.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Odds: 16 to 1!!!!!!

Oh boy, this is the reason for the season, folks. Tom Brady has dragged this woebegone franchise, so idyllically bad that Garrison Keillor could wax poetic about them, to the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl this year! I’m not totally sure what “malarkey” means, but this is it. As much as I’d like to make fun of Tom Brady getting the absolute bejesus kicked out of him while wearing a creamsicle throwback jersey, and I can assure you that over the coming months, I will. But no, this is more to discuss the absolute absurdity of Tom Brady making the Buccaneers, who have a damn pirate ship in their stadium, yarrrrrrrr, Super Bowl contenders.

Yes, you are very correct: These ARE the best group of Wide Receivers that Tom Brady has ever had. No, I don’t care. TOM BRADY IS LIKE 52. That’s an exaggeration, but less of one than 99.999999% of the rest of the NFL.

On the flip side, the Buccaneers defense could be really good in the front seven. Vita Vea is built like an oversized cannonball and destroys lines the same way. Shaq Barrett had a breakout season. Devin White definitely looked like he was worth the high draft pick during his rookie year. Oh man, though. That secondary leaves something to be desired. There is a possibility they were put in a bad situation all season with Jameis Winston throwing interceptions like his career was on fire. Or they might just suck.

What doesn’t maybe suck, and just plain old does suck is the offensive line. And here is the problem.

Part of what made Tampa Bay so explosive on offense was Jameis’ ability to keep plays alive and just huck the ball downfield with the undeserved confidence of Eric Trump. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were built for this kind of offense.

At what point does Mike Evans get sick of having to catch four-yard in patterns from Brady? Week 5? This should come as a shock to nobody, but Tom Brady, at 73 years old, doesn’t have the arm to get the ball downfield that he did when Randy Moss was his best wide receiver, which was, no joke, nine years ago. The problem with Tom Brady is you are dreaming of the person he was, not the person he is, which is someone who was born at the tail end of World War 1.

Philadelphia Eagles
Current odds: 17 to 1

In the words of Pete Townsend, or whoever it was that actually sang for The Who, “WON’T GET FOOLED AGAIN. YEEEEAAAAAAGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!$!$”

Seattle Seahawks
Current Odds: 17 to 1

I’m inclined to believe that this team will contend every year until the sun inevitably melts us off this godforsaken rock. Great coaching will do that for you. Pete Carroll is among the best in the game and seems to make the most out of Russell Wilson plus whatever else each year. I’m really interested in the progress made by D.K. Metcalf at wide receiver, due in large part to the fact that I’ve got a bunch of his rookie cards that I’m really hoping will go up in value.

Green Bay Packers
Current Odds: 18 to 1

The Bears fan in me thinks this team is going to fail, then will secretly prepare for Aaron Rodgers to rip his heart out of my chest again, as he does every year. The football fan in me wonders whether the Packers can repeat their running attack as well as they did in 2019. This isn’t a knock on Aaron Jones, but I’d rather see him start repeating his performance before I start to lay money on this team.

While Green Bay normally makes a habit out of taking defensive backs in the first round every year, this should be the year they go for a top-end wide receiver in a very deep rookie class. If they can draw safety coverage away from Davante Adams and open up the passing game more, then the running game can attack more efficiently.

Maybe If I Was VERY Drunk Super Bowl Contenders

New England Patriots
Current Odds: 20 to 1

Actually, there is no level of drunk you can get me to lay any amount of money on Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham as the new quarterback of the Patriots, and this team doing anything other than getting revenge rained down on them by the rest of the league. After Hoyer’s performance in Indianapolis last year, I’m shocked he is even employed. He should be off somewhere doing autographs signings at car dealerships, not being the steward to the next generation of cheater…errr…quarterback for the Patriots.

Buffalo Bills
Current Odds: 20 to 1

Now, THIS is a team I could get drunk and gamble on right here. The Bills were a playoff team last year, but were a bit of a paper tiger, in that they never beat any good teams and essentially bum-slayed their way through the gawdawful AFC last season.

No team has sensed blood in the water at the top of the AFC food chain as much as the Bills, though. With the Patriots losing their heart and soul in the form of former Civil War commander and new Bucs Quarterback Tom Brady, the Bills have used their cap space to build a short term juggernaut who should have no problem taking the mantle of “team that goes 6-0 through the AFC East each season.”

I like AJ Klein as a run stopper. I love Mario Addison coming off the edge. Stefon Diggs makes me want to run through a brick wall with excitement! Or more likely, jump through a folding table, as that is the Bills Mafia way.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Odds: 25 to 1

Do you ever watch a team make a free agent signing and then get mad because the team you rooted for made a much dumber free agent signing? The Steelers locked up Eric Ebron early in free agency, which is going to be thrilling for Steelers fans, as it gives them a two-syllable name to low roar after catching a pass. They had spent so many years with one syllable tight ends like Heath and Vance. Ebrooooon will have a nice ring to it.

Also, watch. This is gonna end up being the team that signs Jameis Winston. Ben Roethlisberger will start the season, get injured, and Winston will come in for the final eleven games of the season, go 9-2, and win a playoff game. Might as well just settle in and accept it. I think we all know it’s going to happen.

Indianapolis Colts
Current Odds: 25 to 1

Well, this is a weird turn of events. Normally washed up quarterbacks go to the west coast to end their careers, not leave the west coast. While there is no way to tell whether Philip Rivers is completely done or not as a starting quarterback, watching him attempt to play quarterback and throwing the ball to the other team at a rate that would make Brett Favre blush is a pretty good sign that there isn’t much left in the ol’ cannon.

Give credit where it’s due, the Colts realize that they are currently in a championship contender window and are going for it. You don’t trade a first-round pick for DeForest Buckner unless you think you are only a piece or two away, and you don’t give Philip Rivers 25 million unless you think he can put up better stats than Jacoby Brissett. I can’t bet on them yet, but ask me again a month or so into the season.

Los Angeles Chargers
Current Odds: 25 to 1

I’m not even bothering to write about a team as a contender if Tyrod Taylor is their starting quarterback.

Minnesota Vikings
Current Odds: 28 to 1

I mean, I suppose the Vikings are retooling, but you can’t really look at their roster now and say to yourself, this team is better than it was when it stepped off the field for the final time in 2019. Kirk Cousins is back to do Kirk Cousins stuff, such as throw exclusively to Adam Thielen and get Stefon Diggs shipped out of town.

Part of what made Thielen good was that Diggs was always running downfield, keeping safeties honest. What is stopping them from keying in on Thielen now? Irv Smith?? This entire team has 6-10 season, followed by the coach being fired, followed by the general manager saying that the team needs a reset in leadership, followed by the Vikings hiring some quarterbacks coach for the Giants or something.

Los Angeles Rams
Current Odds: 28 to 1

Nope. Enjoy the Leonard Floyd experience!

Super Bowl Non-Contenders

Las Vegas Raiders
Current Odds: 30 to 1

I would honestly rather have a tee-shirt cannon filled with dildos shot directly into my face than wager money on the Raiders winning the Super Bowl. Their idea of quarterback competition is Marcus Mariota, who lost his job in an offense that never threw the ball in the first place. Derek Carr had to see the Mariota signing, and pull a Bender from the end of Breakfast Club, just pumping his fist in the sunset, knowing he is going to be the starter next year.

Tennessee Titans
Current Odds: 35 to 1

Part of me thinks that this team will contend simply because the rest of the division is a swamp of mediocrity. Then a much larger part of me remembers that their big free agent signing was Vic Beasley, and I lose any urge to actually bet on this team. Also, they lost possibly their best linemen on either side of the ball, trading Jurell Casey to the Broncos.

Cleveland Browns
Current Odds: 40 to 1

If this team invests at least four drafts picks on the offensive line, then I’m willing to revisit the Browns, just based on talent alone. But holy hell, that was the worst offensive line I’ve ever seen in football for stretches last year. Baker Mayfield nearly got murdered. Also, he was terrible even when defenses weren’t killing him out there. There are theoretically too many weapons for this team to stay bad forever. They just all need to not die on the field or kill each other in practice, first.

Chicago Bears
Current Odds: 40 to 1

Every day, GM Ryan Pace wakes up and prays to a picture of Bill O’Brien, because Saint O’Brien always dies for his sins. Translated: Ryan Pace would be one of the worst general managers in football and more people would be talking about it if it wasn’t for Bill O’Brien being a consistent pile of ass. At least some GM’s are bad fun, and sign guys from the XFL to see what they can do. Pace just wrecks his salary cap by signing terrible tight ends every year.

Also, I posted the numbers last week. When Nick Foles starts, he has the exact same completion percentage, touchdown rate, interception rate, and QB Rating as Mitch Trubisky. Congratulations to the Bears for giving up a fourth-round pick to ruin their salary cap flexibility by getting a terrible quarterback who, if you squint just right, could be slightly less terrible than their current option…WHO THEY DRAFTED AHEAD OF PATRICK MAHOMES AND DESHAUN WATSON.

Denver Broncos
Current Odds: 50 to 1

Hmm. This is an interesting current odds simply because nobody quite knows what they have in Drew Lock. What everyone does know is that Vic Fangio is going to coach up the defense and continue to have no idea what is going on when the offense is on the field. They brought in Melvin Gordon, which is nice, and horrifyingly unnecessary. They could have signed Robby Anderson to help in an actual area of need, the wide receiving corps. Instead, they brought in a guy who costs 10x as much as current starter Phillip Lindsay.

If Drew Lock can figure it out quickly, then the Broncos have a chance to contend for a Wild Card spot. If he doesn’t, then we are going to want to be gouging our eyes out watching Denver and Vegas playing 13-9 games while we all slowly come to terms with the idea that we will die someday, and we spent three hours of our lives watching this game.

Houston Texans
Current Odds: 60 to 1

This team turned DeAndre Hopkins into David Johnson and Randall Cobb. I’m going to go ahead and not bet a dime on this team, while also lighting a candle for Deshaun Watson, who definitely deserves better than what is happening in Houston, currently.

Atlanta Falcons
Current Odds: 60 to 1

Every year, I talk myself into the Falcons. And every year it burns me. Every. Damn. Year. And of course, this year will be absolutely no different. I’ll put a hundred down to win six grand. I’ll talk myself into the Todd Gurley signing. I will talk myself into the team looking better at the end of last season. I’ll talk myself into them throwing to Julio Jones more in the offense. And then I’ll come to terms with the fact that, once again, I set money on fire for a team that is horrible on defense, doesn’t know how to get their best player the ball, and will probably finish in a distant third in the NFC South. Football is funny that way.

Arizona Cardinals
Current Odds: 60 to 1

Sorry kids. You guys are a year away. Now, if I could get 60 to 1 odds on them winning next year…

New York Giants
Current Odds: 60 to 1

So… this team brought in the special teams coach from the Patriots as their new head coach. He already comes off as a meathead whose style of coaching is becoming less and less prevalent in the league. Then, they continue their Giants’ way of signing free agents from the Carolina Panthers but fail to sign Mario Addison, the best one available. Also, Danny Dimes looked woefully incompetent for long stretches last year.

The question isn’t “Why should I bet on this team?” The real question is “Why aren’t their odds worse than this? This team blows.”

Your Team Sucks and I’m Going to Secretly Hate You If You Are a Fan of These Teams For Making Me Watch Them

Detroit Lions
Current Odds: 100 to 1

Congratulations to the Lions for becoming Bill Belichek’s personal junkyard. They have signed four more former Patriots this offseason, and now have more former Patriots on their current roster than Lions who were on the team when beard enthusiast, and quite possibly the worst coach ever, Matt Patricia took over. Patricia is on some Single White Female thing right now. The Lions should have fired him when they had their chance, but instead are going to make sure that this team wins five games forever.

New York Jets
Current Odds: 100 to 1

My favorite moment of last season was Sam Darnold seeing ghosts. Damn, that was fun. Anyway, this team sucks, and their best wide receiver is currently a free agent. They made a serious run of bad free agent acquisitions while not improving their team. Adam Gase is quite possibly the worst coach in the NFL. Le’Veon Bell has already mentally checked out. The defense isn’t getting better. They truly earned their 100 to 1 odds.

Miami Dolphins
Current Odds: 100 to 1

Drafting Tua will help their trajectory, but this team is still running on empty when it comes to offensive talent. They pretty much have DeVante Parker and…I’d say Mike Gesicki, but I’m not sure he actually exists until he gets traded to the Patriots, where all plodding, sure-handed white guys end up. This team is at least two years away. Bravo on having a great secondary, though. It will make your games even more unwatchable as your offense puts up six points per game.

Carolina Panthers
Current Odds: 125 to 1

I mean…they aren’t tanking. Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade over Cam Newton at this stage in their careers. Christian McCaffrey is a god amongst men. Aaaaand that’s pretty much it. The cupboard is pretty bare for the Panthers, who are going to need time to rebuild this entire thing. They claim it isn’t a rebuild, but when “Panthers sign XFL star to compete for backup QB spot” is one of the main headlines of your offseason, you know what you are about.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Current Odds: 200 to 1

This team is selling everything it can. It’s a Jacksonville yard sale out there, which, for the record, is the fifth-classiest thing you can do in Jacksonville. Just ahead of wearing a Tuxedo to TGI Fridays, and just behind eating a swordfish dinner at a strip club.

Washington Football Team
Current Odds: 200 to 1

This team isn’t “worst odds in football” bad, but they aren’t that good, either. Ron Rivera will help, but it’s important to remember that noted C.H.U.D. Dan Snyder still owns this team, and they deserve nothing but 0-16 seasons for eternity.

Cincinnati Bengals
Current Odds: 200 to 1

Poor, sweet Joe Burrow. He was right there. He was right on the verge of demanding his way out of being the first pick in the draft and having to go to this erstwhile competent franchise. And then he backed down, and now he’s going to pray he doesn’t die behind that offensive line before he can get the hell out of town in free agency. Burrow is proof that you should never try hard in life. Because if you do, you might end up as a Bengal.

 

Brandon Andreasen is the Co-Founder of Fancy Boys Club
Check him on Instagram at Branarchy Radio
If his account ever gets unsuspended, catch him on Twitter @theBman

 

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