2018 Fantasy Football: Duke Johnson, Jr. Player Profile

Duke Johnson Jr. Player Profile

If you love you some PPR backs, then this fantasy football Duke Johnson Jr. player profile is for you. As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts.  When you don’t see us talking about Christine Michael or Mike Davis, don’t get mad at us for neglecting your favorite sleeper.  Get mad at yourself for having bad taste in football players.  We are only focusing on the top-rated running backs in standard scoring and points per game leagues.

With my player profiles, I’ve only decided to go back to look at their fantasy scoring for three years.  I could show you lists from earlier, but most of the guys at the top are no longer in the league anymore.  I’ve also added a chart for their usage over that time span.  We will try to determine, based on those two factors, where the best running back value lies.

Fantasy Football Duke Johnson, Jr.

Current ADP (As of 9/3/2018):

Standard: Number 38 among running backs.  Number 105 overall.

PPR: Number 34 among running backs.  Number 83 overall.




Rank Total Points PPG Rank PPG
2017 21 128.6 25 8.6
2016 36 91.6 51 6.1
2015 35 98.8 52 6.6


Rank Total Points PPG Rank PPG
2017 11 216.1 16 13.5
2016 27 144.6 40 9.6
2015 23 155.8 37 10.4


Carries Carries Per Game Targets Targets Per Game
2017 82 5.1 93 5.8
2016 73 4.6 74 4.6
2015 104 6.5 74 4.6

Overview: Duke Johnson Jr. was a very interesting case study of running backs.  In points per reception leagues, he produces at a significantly higher rate than in standard leagues.  Yet for some reason, the drop off in his ADP for standard leagues isn’t that much.   While he produced RB2 numbers in standard last year, I think it would be silly to count on similar production this year.  The Browns signed Carlos Hyde and drafted Nick Chubb.  While they will have to use Johnson as a runner to keep defenses honest, I think it is more likely that the Browns will lean on Hyde more in the receiving game, since he had 88 targets last year and is a much better runner.

Strategy: I honestly don’t like Duke Johnson Jr. at his current ADP, for the reasons I listed.  I think a lot of his running and receiving shares will be siphoned off to Nick Chubb and Carlos Hyde.  I also think that, while the Browns plan on utilizing him more in the receiving game, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku will have a negative impact on his ability to produce as a pass-catcher.  Frankly, I just don’t see how Johnson can improve on his numbers from last year with all the roster upgrades Cleveland made this offseason.

Ceiling: I will be proven wrong and he’ll produce low-end RB1 numbers in PPR leagues.

Floor:  What will actually happen is Johnson will be completely phased out of the Cleveland Browns offense and won’t be on any fantasy rosters after week four.


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