It’s been a heck of a season for Jay Ajayi. He toiled for the Miami Dolphins as they rode into obscurity, then overnight he was on the NFC’s top team. Fast forward five games and the Eagles without Carson Wentz are in a fight for their playoff lives. It’s also been a heck of a ride for Ajayi’s fantasy football owners, too. With the fantasy semifinals on the line, how can you trust Jay Ajayi this week? Can you trust Jay Ajayi this week? Does the matchup overcome the part-time backs limitations and make him a viable play? Is he really as part-time as he seems?
First, let’s look at Jay Ajayi’s time with the Eagles. He started off getting between 20% and 30% of the snaps for his first couple of games, averaging just about eight touches a game in that span. He was ripping off more unsustainable production than Bitcoin in his first couple of games, turning sixteen touches into 178 yards… and doing it while playing under 25% of snaps. He bottomed out with 33 yards on seven touches in his third game but has gotten a bigger slice of the pie since then.
He’s turned in 41% and 47% of snaps in the each of the last two games, and his touches have hit 13, then 17. Another 3-4 touch jump and he’s back to a bona fide full-time back! He turned those 17 touches into his second-highest yardage total as an Eagle (80 yards). Not a bad return from your first-round pick if you were lucky enough to not miss out on the playoffs entirely thanks to him.
This week, a percentage of the Philly run game likely means a whole lot more rushing attempts, too, given that the Eagles can beat the Giants by just running the ball, and are likely to ease Foles into the starting role. The Giants have been overwhelmingly gashed recently, giving up the second-most fantasy points to running backs in the last three weeks, including 130 yards to Samaje Perine and 121 yards to Marshawn Lynch. They’ve also given up four dang running back dang touchdowns in the last two dang games (that’s a lot).
Ajayi is a great play this week as the Eagles will set him loose to complete his takeover from LeGarrette Blount. A greater percentage of touches this week will get even bigger, as the raw number out touches will go up, as well. Ajayi gives you nothing to fear, as his days of losing an extreme number of snaps are over, and he gets one of the best possible matchups. Play him, and enjoy your trip to the finals.