One-third of the NFL season is in the books, and if your team has nobody on bye, is at full strength, and isn’t missing a key player, then bully for you. I am not mad at you at all. For the rest of us, I have three players available in at least 50% of Yahoo! leagues, with a player at each position available in at least 90% of leagues. Let’s hop in!
QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers at New Orleans (47% rostered)
Rodgers has 230+ passing yards in four straight games (three over 250) and multiple touchdowns in four straight games as well (three with three touchdowns). Both trends are likely to continue Sunday, as Rodgers throws the ball all over the field (fifth in dropbacks per game) and, specifically, into the end zone (eleventh in end zone targets per game). He’s getting more passing yards per game than last season because he is more willing to stay in the pocket (time to throw increased) and take more sacks (his pressure-to-sack rate is up 5%) to push the ball downfield (his average depth of target is over a yard higher). He’s not just taking the first thing and dumping it off, and it’s working for him.
As for New Orleans, they gave up 243 passing yards to J.J. McCarthy in eleven minutes, totaling 395 passing yards and two touchdowns against them last week. That broke a streak of back-to-back games allowing single-digit touchdowns, but those were to Michael Penix and Kyler Murray, so who’s to say who is more responsible for those efforts? Anyone who gives up 240+ yards to Nine Times Two will get targeted the next week by me; those are just the rules.
Geno Smith at Miami (12% rostered)
It’s been a long time since Geno Smith finished with more than 13 fantasy points, and he has just two games above 15 fantasy points on the season, but he’s had three-straight tough matchups. The Dolphins matchup isn’t one that you should fear; four of the five quarterbacks who took them on this year finished with multiple touchdowns. They’ve a sieve on defense, and all four of those quarterbacks finished with at least 15.8 points. They’re a defensive sieve, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points this season.
The Jets are also rounding into shape, from a passing game weaponry perspective. They are still without AD Mitchell, but Omar Cooper returned from IR last week to catch six-of-seven passes for 103 yards and a touchdown and the first-rounder is looking every bit the bill, despite having only a 21% first-read target share (but that’s what happens when your team has Garrett Wilson. Cooper will provide Geno with a second read that is not a tight end or a checkdown, which will give Geno another passing game weapon, one which he desperately needs. This week is shaping up to be a nice one-week play for Geno.
Deep Dive: Tanner McKee versus Dallas (7% rostered)
With Jalen Hurts sidelined (possibly permanently), the Eagles are turning to McKee, at least for the time being. McKee’s first start wasn’t all bad, posting 215 yards and a touchdown, while not turning the ball over and turning in a yeoman’s 12.6 PPR points. The Eagles had him drop back 48 times last week, and He did this against the Panthers, who are a neutral matchup against quarterbacks this season. McKee wasn’t afraid to push it downfield last week, averaging 8.4 air yards per pass attempt, so he can get chunk gains in a hurry against the Cowboys. Dallas is also an offense that will put up points against Philadelphia, as they are one of the league’s best units. It will be a shootout on Monday Night Football, and McKee will go along for the ride.
RUNNING BACKS
Kendre Miller versus Pittsburgh (43% rostered)
You can tell that the fantasy football season hit its doldrums because a 22-touch performance from Miller only vaulted him up to 43% rostered. With Travis Etienne still on the shelf, and Alvin Kamara using up the rest of his juice on his catch-and-run last week, Miller is in line to get a ton of touches again, after posting 9 PPR points in back-to-back games. It isn’t a high-upside play against the middling Pittsburgh run defense, but it is one that will prove to provide Miller with a ton of volume. I prefer the two players below more, to be honest…
TNF SPECIAL:
Roschon Johnson versus New England (18% rostered)
With Kyle Monangai sidelined again this week, Roschon will once again take the RB2 role in Chicago. He did well with it last weekend, turning 15 touches into 85 yards, with a score. This role is fairly consistent in Chicago, as Kyle Mongangai had 30 touches the week before. This one is set to be a high-scoring affair, with both the Patriots and Bears offenses hoping to stop subpar defenses from ruining their season. The Patriots are a neutral running back matchup, but allow the thirteenth-highest fantasy points per touch. This is a plug-and-play in what is shaping up to be a shootout.
Deep Dive: Bam Knight versus Denver (7% rostered)
Any running back who had 17 touches for 98 yards, who is going to be in the same situation, and who missed time in the previous game because of cramping (so he should have had more touches) should be rostered in at least 50% of leagues. The Broncos defense is scary on paper, but on the actual football field, they allow the tenth-most fantasy points per touch, and the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs overall this season. Knight will share with Allgeier, but with Jeremiyah Love expected to miss his second-straight game, Knight is a plug-and-play streamer, much like Roschon.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Omar Cooper Jr. Versus Miami (43% rostered)
Cooper kicked the door down last week in his first full game in the NFL, with six catches for 103 yards and a score. This didn’t come out of nowhere, either. Cooper was their first-round pick, and his only target in week one was for a 30-yard gain. He’s a core part of their future, and Geno Smith is going to continue to feed him in this one. The Dolphins are the most talent-bereft team in the league, and will do anything to stop Cooper, should Geno find it in his heart to hypertarget Cooper. They are a run-funnel defense, however, so a follow-up boom week might get dampened by a Breece Hall/Braelon Allen rushing extravaganza.
THURSDAY NIGHT SPECIAL
DeMario Douglas at Chicago (39% rostered)
With A.J. Brown likely still not up to snuff, and Romeo Doubs hitting the IR, it’s likely to be Pop Douglas for the third straight week in a primo matchup on Thursday Night Football. The Bears have allowed at least 12 PPR points to four wide receivers in the last two weeks, with Jahan Dotson, Matthew Goldon & Christian Watson all topping 17.7 PPR points. So, the door is wide open for DeMario to “Pop” through. Douglas has back-to-back huge games, with 13 targets, 11 catches, 151 yards, and three touchdowns across the last two games.
Deep Dive: Brandin Cooks at Atlanta (4% rostered)
So I was wrong about Cooks last week, but he was the direct replacement for Mike Evans when he went down with his Achilles injury last week (and he rotated in with Evans whenever Evans took a breather prior to that point). So, I expect a good amount of Brandin Cooks this week. Cooks led the 49ers in routes in the second half (after Evans’ injury), logging 73.7% of snaps and 80% of routes run. The Falcons allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, with seven notching at least 11 PPR points in the last four games.
TIGHT ENDS
AJ Barner versus Kansas City (10% rostered)
Barner started the season slowly, running fewer than 20 routes in each of his first two games, but he has 29 or more in three of his last four games, which gives him far more opportunities to produce. The Seahawks have been looking his way with those routes, as he has five targets per game in that span (not world-beating, but an encouraging sign). The yardage hasn’t been there (20 or fewer yards in three straight games), but the opportunity persists. The Chiefs have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends on the season, allowing a touchdown per game over their first four games. The Chargers couldn’t make it five-for-five, but that has more to do with the Chargers than the Chiefs. This matchup of the last two Super Bowl winners could be a shootout, and that would end with opportunities for Barner.
Tyler Higbee at Las Vegas (36% rostered)
The Raiders are a sieve to the tight end, allowing five tight ends at least ten PPR fantasy points over the last four weeks and the third-most fantasy points per game and targets to tight ends. In that same span, HCH has 27 and led the Rams’ tight ends in routes last week despite only having four targets that week. That broke a streak of three straight games above 11 PPR points, and the route rate indicates that the down game last week was more of a blip than a new trend.
Darnell Washington at New Orleans (3% rostered)
Originally, I wanted to go with Pat Freiermuth here, but over the last four weeks, Washington only has one less target than Freiermuth, and the same number of catches. Freiermuth has more yardage and touchdowns, but this deep play has one thing in mind: end zone targets. Washington more than doubles up on Freiermuth in that regard, getting five to Freiermuth’s two. With Washington’s 70% catch rate, he’s likely to come down with a touchdown if he gets an end zone target in this one. In the last five weeks, the Saints allow the fifth-most fantasy points per target to tight ends, and are one of eight teams to allow over two fantasy points per target to the position over that span.
