Week seven of the NFL season is in the books, and with it, the halfway point of the fantasy football regular season. Given that the league doles out thousands of snaps every week, the landscape flips in a hurry. There are three players below whose prospects are vastly different from what they were three weeks ago that have us scratching our heads, so let’s dive into Juwan Johnson, Omar Cooper, and Malik Willis!
Is Juwan Johnson Droppable?
Juwan Johnson went all the way to France to catch one pass for seven yards. He finished with three targets on the day, and it marks the third-straight disaster week for those who started Johnson. He ran just 58% of routes this week, which continues a troubling trend, as do his three targets this week. In the two weeks prior to week seven, Juwan Johnson saw a huge change in his usage; he went from a 68% route share down to a 61% route share. This week, that dropped down again to 58%. He averaged 6.5 targets per game in the first four weeks (14.55%), down to 3 targets and 11.35% in weeks five and six. In week seven, that stayed at three targets, but just a 7.9% share. His production (and fantasy points) have dropped accordingly, as he had five catches for 58 yards, averaging 0.75 touchdowns per game in the first four weeks (15.3 PPR points per game). Over the last three weeks, he averages 3.3 targets, 1.7 catches, and 7.8 yards per game, or 2.47 PPR points per game.
Unfortunately, the Steelers provided for a good matchup after two straight bad TE matchups (the ever-stifling Minnesota Vikings & the sixth-best defense against TE on a per-target basis), as they allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per target to tight ends over the previous four weeks. So, you can’t chalk it up to matchup. The Saints are headed into their bye week, and get the Browns (sixteenth-most fantasy points per target to tight ends) when they return from their bye. You can move on from Juwan Johnson, as anything he does against Cleveland will be a complete reversal of a trend that has now lasted half the season.
Is Omar Cooper Jr. A Must-Start Wide Receiver?
Omar Cooper crushed the Miami Dolphins this week, following up his week six 6/7/103/1 game against the Patriots with a 5/5/115/1 game against the Miami Dolphins. He’s been utterly dominant in his first two full games in the NFL (and his other game was 30 yards on his sole catch before suffering an injury in week one). Unfortunately for those who snagged Omar Cooper Jr. off of the waiver wire, this might be a fluke, but one that could keep chugging along for at least one more week.
Omar Cooper brutalized the Dolphins and Patriots (and brutalized the Titans on his one target in week one), and all three are among the worst pass defenses in the NFL by catch rate. The Dolphins are an extreme outlier in catch rate, allowing an 81% catch rate, far ahead of the #2 team’s 74% catch rate… the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots are within spitting distance of that, allowing a 71% catch rate on the season. This also, unfortunately, makes them some of the worst teams in the league in yards per target over expectation. The Dolphins rank third in this statistic, the Patriots rank eighth, and the Titans rank thirteenth. So, the three matchups he’s faced so far this season rank from neutral to great. Luckily for Cooper drafters, he’s a must-start receiver in week eight, as the Jets take on the Las Vegas Raiders, who rank fifth in yards per target over expectation. Unfortunately, he follows that up with a bottom-ten matchup with the Chiefs, but the Bills, Chargers, and a rematch with the Dolphins loom after that. This is going to be a fun month or so for those of us who scooped Omar Cooper Jr. off of the waiver wire.
Is Malik Willis Finally A Good Fantasy Quarterback?
Malik Willis finished week seven with 26.02 fantasy points on the week, passing for 208 yards and two scores, and rushing for 37 yards and a score. This marks the second time in the last two games that he’s passed 20 points, which represents his only 20+ point games on the season. Prior to the last two games, Willis averaged just 10.9 fantasy points per game.
So, what changed? It wasn’t the matchup, as the Jets and Bengals, his last two opponents, average the eighth and fifteenth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, the Jets have now yielded six total touchdowns to running backs in the last two games, and have given up 40, 24, and 37 rushing yards (with a touchdown) to quarterbacks in the last three games. That is to say: they are exceptionally vulnerable to rushing quarterbacks. But, the Bengals have contained rushing quarterbacks a bit better, with Malik Willis being the only quarterback to go over 30 yards against them.
So, what we have is a rushing quarterback taking advantage of plus rushing matchups. However, this has not been a consistent part of his game this year, after it was a key part of his makeup in both Tennessee and Green Bay. So, the rushing is extremely encouraging. But what of his record going forward? Great news: he gets four subpar defenses on the docket. The Patriots greet him next weekend (his only tough matchup), and then the Lions (seventh in fantasy points per dropback), Colts (ninth in FP/DB), Bills (tenth in FP/DB), and Jets (who he beat up on today). So, Malik Willis might not be a good fantasy quarterback at this point, but he is about to ride a hot streak (should he continue rushing), and you can pick up and add him for his streamable matchups on the horizon.
