Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Welcome back! I was getting disappointed with my .500 ball over the past few weeks, but I was listening to a podcast the other day featuring some jamoke who has his own specific betting lines show, and his record was way worse than mine, on less bets a week! Get me a podcast! Oh shit, I do have one on this very website’s podcast network (listen to THfantaC and the Football Absurdity Podcasts).
As for the picks, I don’t blame you for fading my long shot play of the week since it’s sitting at 2-7 on the year, but outside of those, I’m posting a win/loss record of 19-8. Hopefully you know the drill by now, so let’s hop in.
Green Bay/Pittsburgh UNDER 38.5 (-106)
Prepare for a slow, droning, mashing of human bodies in Pittsburgh this Sunday, as two teams that are bottom 6 in offensive plays run per game meet up to bore us all to tears. Both teams are below average at scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone (Green Bay is 17th, while Pittsburgh is 27th). These respective offenses refusing to take downfield shots to their field stretchers may limit explosive play potential, and, well, the Packers average 20 points per game (15 points per game in their last 4), while Pittsburgh averages 16.6 points per game on the season. Take the under and be happy you pay for whip around football coverage on Sundays.
Detroit -3.0 at L.A. Chargers (-108)
The Chargers are truly an enigma: a team with all the name brand talent on Earth, who can’t consistently defend any NFL starting tier QB, with an offense that always seems to toe the line between “Top 5 Unit” and “Absolute Clownshow.” Wins over Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson have given Brandon Staley a bit of breathing room, but the team’s inability to stop tight ends, slot WRs, and the running game says to me that the Lions can get out to a lead and then just run the ball into oblivion in what is a de facto home game. Take the Lions and the points.
Cleveland/Baltimore UNDER 38.5 (-115)
Lamar Jackson is a big reason why this new Todd Monken offense is looking so crisp; Jackson’s ability to make things happen outside of the called play design has kept the chains moving (he currently leads the league in scrambles), but this week they’re going against a buzzsaw. Cleveland and Baltimore are two of the best defenses in the NFL, and while there won’t be a ton of points scored here, I expect it to be a defensive clinic by both sides. Cleveland’s offense hasn’t faced a ton of elite defenses, and the best two they’ve faced (Baltimore and San Francisco) featured a different signal caller than the atrocity of a human being they’ll march out there on Sunday. Take the under and watch these defenses cook.
Long Shot Play of the Week: Arizona Moneyline (+104)
Is this cheating? This feels like cheating. Kyler’s return is going to change a lot of things for an offense that has had a lot to offer from a playcalling perspective this season. As of this writing, I’m not sure if James Conner is coming back, and I’d assume if he is active for Sunday the line might change. I don’t think it matters, to be honest. The Falcons have beaten one team that scored more than 20 points in a game, and that was week 2 when the world thought Jordan Love could be a decent quarterback. I’m making this bet under the assumption that Arizona is going to score and Atlanta is going to struggle to keep up.