Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
I’d like to whisper this take as quietly as possible to not upset the football gods: this week sucks for betting. The players and teams we usually expect to dominate have average to bad matchups, and the players/teams we expect to suck are also playing teams in a similar boat. How am I supposed to bet against both the Giants and Commanders when they play each other? Brian Hoyer vs Tyson Bagent? I quit cigarettes for this?
We went 2-2 last week, which we need to fix so that I can continue to flex on people on the internet who won’t think about me ever again. To the picks!
Las Vegas Raiders Moneyline (-154)
The aforementioned shitshow of Brian Hoyer versus Tyson Bagent rolls into Soldier Field, hopefully, to be greeted by a half-empty stadium. I looked at this one as much as I could to try to get a lead on what the heck to expect, and it’s not pretty. Bagent is a division 2 QB, and Hoyer is a decade 2 QB. I wanted to bet the under, but there’s no way to tell what the heck Josh McDaniels is willing to do with his job on the line, so I’m just taking a Raiders win against a reeling Bears team.
Kansas City Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 47.5 (-105)
I feel like the Chiefs/Chargers games of the past have colored our expectations of this game. Kansas City games have only hit this over one time this season, and while the marquee will read the names of the stars: Mahomes/Herbert/Kelce/Ekeler/Allen, the coaches on both sides will try their best to ruin what should be the best game of the week. If this game hits the over, Mahomes and Herbert have ascended the flaccid play calling of Matt Nagy and Kellen Moore. This is a bet I’m willing to lose for good football in return.
Baltimore Ravens -3 (-104)
Early this week, I expected this to be my long-shot play of the week, since I couldn’t fathom the Lions being underdogs with the roll they’ve been on. Imagine my surprise on Thursday when I saw the Ravens as home favorites. For as much as the Ben Johnson hype train has already left the station, the future Raiders head coach and his Lions haven’t beaten a good team since week 1, and we’re overdue for a classic Jared Goff stinker. With the Lions missing David Montgomery while going against a team that they will need to keep pace with, I think taking the Ravens to win by more than a field goal is a wise investment.
Long Shot Play of the Week: New York Giants Moneyline (+124)
I’m not going to mince words here, my long-shot plays this season have not delivered, and it’s essentially me throwing one bet’s worth of money directly into the toilet. So, while we’re already in the bathroom, let’s bet on shit. Daniel Jones is still limited this week, but the Washington defense is somehow beatable. The health of Wan’Dale Robinson is big in this one for me, since his ability to get open quickly can hopefully mitigate the lack of an offensive line in New York. The Giants have looked awful and there’s no denying that; however, let’s remember that those losses have come against Miami (5-1), Buffalo (4-2), Dallas (4-2), Seattle (3-2), and San Francisco (5-1). That’s a combined 21-8, and this bet is hoping that when the Giants play a much worse team they can sneak out a win.
Last Week: 2-2
Season Total: 15-9 (1-5 on Long Shot Plays)
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7b/Saquon_Barkley_Giants_2018.jpg]