After only 15 picks in your salary cap/auction draft, this tool will tell you which WR is going to go for a steal, later.
During 90% of fantasy football auction/salary cap drafts, the wide receiver market will crash. After this point, startable wide receivers will begin going for half their projected price or less.
The issue is knowing when that crash is going to occur. If we know in advance, we could use that estimated savings to get better top-end players early. But the problem lies in the old adage, “every auction is different.” That’s where I come in. Although every auction is different, the market patterns that happen in these auctions are quite similar. This is because every redraft auction has the same total budget-per-manager and player pool. It’s a textbook closed system economy, which makes it actually quite predictable if we are crunching the numbers correctly.
Last year, I analyzed these trends and determined a simple rule of thumb for predicting the WR market crash. This year, I went one step further: I’ve worked the whole thing into an algorithm. Download the spreadsheet linked above and follow these steps.
- During your auction/salary cap draft, when a player is rostered, enter their price in the corresponding cell of the “player price” column. If the player is not listed, they are too low in value to be statistically significant in altering the market.
- After you have entered 15 player prices, look at the WR Market Crash Prediction Range. There will be 3 players listed. At least one of those players should go for 50% off or more. Plan on this, and “pre-spend” your future savings confidently.
- Dominate your league. We love you.