Welcome back to The Degenerates Gambit! Once again, please remember that these articles are for fun, and while I love writing them and gambling on football, if you or someone you know is addicted and needs help, please get help or get help for them. The national helpline number is 1-800-522-4700.
Pop quiz, hotshot: gun to your head, who are your bets this week? I’m really reaching out for some help here because I’m on a cold streak and if I don’t start hitting, I’ve been told I won’t be asked back next year.
Okay, that’s not true [Editor’s Note: Don’t be so sure.], but could you imagine what it would feel like if it was? I’d be terrified.
Luckily for me, a cold streak only means one thing: I’m DUE. A Tweet I saw a few weeks ago pointed out that if you haven’t won in a while, you’re due, which makes you the most dangerous gambler in the game. So, I’m going for broke this week: from the Danger Zone to the Dangerwich, and when I cash big I promise you can use any of the 12 bathrooms in my house.
Green Bay ML
I was hoping the Vikings would be favorites here, since, well, we’ve seen their record. However, Vegas has this game priced properly in my opinion, with Green Bay -3 at the time of this writing. The Vikings can’t stop anyone through the air, and Aaron Rodgers is still making those throws that have viewers wondering if maybe Joe Rogan is onto something (he isn’t). Kirk Cousins is playing in “America’s Game of the Week,” which is an absolute death sentence to his confidence. I’m taking the moneyline instead of the spread at lower odds because the Vikings keep games incredibly close, but I do believe the Pack take this one at home.
NY Giants -5.5
Jeff, when you’re editing this, I hope you’ll make me an offer for Isaiah Hodgins in the dynasty league we’re in, but please wait until AFTER this week so I can get a reasonable price. [Editor’s Note: this seems fair to me]. I was all over the Hodgins breakout last week, but I think this game is won by the Giants in the trenches. The Colts and Giants have incredibly hot rushing attacks right now, but Saquon has the better matchup and a guarantee to get 90% of the backfield snaps. Nick Foles continues to be Nick Foles and the Giants cruise to an easy victory here. If you must play any Giants WRs, go with the slot guy, Richie James.
AZ/ATL Under 41.5
Even with Colt McCoy clearing concussion protocol this week, this line still feels safe. If it was Trace McSorley starting another game for the Cardinals, I’d play this total points line down to 33.5, which would get you a SPICY +280. If this game happened in week 2, I’d be all over it, since Arizona can’t stop the run, Atlanta can’t stop the pass, and neither team has a passing interest in covering opposing tight ends. However, with Desmond Ridder and the two-headed Shit Hydra in Arizona, don’t bet on some crazy production. With McCoy in, Hopkins is playable again in fantasy (assuming you somehow survived last week), but Tyler Allgeier should be the star of the show this week. Bet the under and you can use the master bathroom if you wish.
LSPOTW: MIA ML
As I was writing this, Tua Tagovailoa has been downgraded to OUT for this game. I sure hope this dude takes a break at some point because this season has been awful to watch if you’re a fan of former NFL players living long, fulfilling lives after football. As awful as it feels to see a young man be failed by so many team, league, and medical people specifically hired to protect him, it’s presenting a unique and beneficial betting opportunity for subhuman degenerates like us. Teddy Bridgewater has performed admirably in his time filling in, and he has funneled the ball to his stars on the outside: Tyreek Hill averages 4 more targets, 4 more receptions, and SIXTY more yards in games where Teddy took a majority of the snaps. Marcus Jones, it’s been really fun watching you do your Devin Hester impersonation over the last month, but this one should be a runaway Dolphins win. Take the Miami moneyline, and let’s see how the Pats manage to lose this one!
Underdog (fuck Blackrock) Parlay:
Brian Robinson: OVER 64.5 rushing
Garrett Wilson: OVER 66.5 receiving