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Well well well, how the tables have turned. Last week’s bath turned out to be as short as a Liz Truss regime since we were a Cleveland cover away from going undefeated! I swear the first week I go 5/5, my entire article the next week is just gonna be the video of Danzig getting knocked out with the caption “NORTH SIDE KINGS ARE UNDEFEATED.” Well, it’s something to look forward to, I guess. We hit the Jets’ moneyline last week! I mean what the hell?!?
It’s one of the first real tough bye weeks to navigate, scores are going to be low as hell this week if I had to guess without Buffalo, Philadelphia, and whatever fantasy defense could’ve been playing the Rams.
Detroit/Dallas UNDER 48.5 (-106)
As a fan of Dak Prescott, I feel like there’s a chance we’re all looking at 2020 and expecting a return to the top of the mountain now that he’s back, somehow. Never mind the diminished offensive line play, the cliff that Zeke fell off years ago, and the fact that Mike McCarthy still prowls the sidelines, it’s still good, it’s still good! This game is Lisa Simpson’s gazpacho, served at room temperature. I love the Lions, I think they have blown away (fantasy) football expectations, but their last stinker against the Patriots put to tape a blueprint to beating the offensive juggernaut that is Detroit. If Swift plays, this line is shaky but I still like it.
Indianapolis Moneyline (+116)
I said on the Thursday Night Farceball side cast on the Football Absurdity Twitch a couple of weeks ago that I still believe the Colts can be a playoff team, and divisional games like this are must-win contests if that’s going to be true. At the end of the day, this team is a mess, but Tennessee being one of the worst defenses against opposing receivers says to me that if Indy can get out to a lead and force Ryan Tannehill to pass 50 times, this is easy money. I’m taking the Colts to upset Tennessee this week, and I’m not even nervous.
Jacksonville (-3) over NY Giants
I can’t believe I’m betting on Jacksonville to get a win against one of the teams with the best record in the league in mid-October, but here we are. So, you might ask yourself, why take this bet? Well, I think similarly to Indy, a Jacksonville offensive onslaught takes the running game out of it, and since Jacksonville allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game on the season if Barkley doesn’t get hot immediately out of the gate this game might be a blowout early. I’m taking the points. Duval, baby!
Green Bay (-4.5) over Washington
Trust me, this is probably harder for me to write than it is for you to read, and I say that as someone fully aware of my poor syntax. I mean look at that last sentence, it’s terrible! Terrible, however, doesn’t even begin to describe how it feels to bet FOR Green Bay. The bane of my existence, the natural immunity to my Moderna, the bad astrology tattoo to my objectively much cooler Metallica tattoo. Washington might be the worst team in football, and it’s not Carson Wentz’s fault; the Washington organization is a colossal wreck. Aaron Rodgers was embarrassed last week, so expect Green Bay to do what they do best: get calls from the officials, run the ball, and play great defense. I think 4.5 is a great spread because I believe this is easily a Packers win by at least a touchdown.
Long Shot Play of the Week (LSPOTW): Atlanta (+6.5) vs Cincinnati
My LSPOTW hit last week, and I’m feeling kind of frisky, so we’re going in on Marcus Mariota out-dueling Joe Burrow IN Cincy this week. Why? Consistency over recency bias. Joe Mixon is still the least efficient RB in football with his carries, the Bengals’ offensive line is still shit, and Atlanta has started to look like a team that believes they can win every single week. Teams that meet as rarely as these two tend to start pretty slow, and I think Atlanta’s efficiency can turn this game into a pass-first affair, where Cincy’s offensive line will struggle. Also, I want this to be THE Kyle Pitts week so that Jeff Krisko and the rest of the FA brain trust will stop picking on my dude. [Editor’s Note: I refuse!]
2022 Record: 16/30
LSPOTW: 4/6
