It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We finished our quarterbacks already; that means it’s time to get to the most frustrating position! That’s right, we’re on to the running backs. We all saw how hot Playoff Lenny was last January, but shortly thereafter, the Buccaneers revealed they almost cut 2020 Leonard Fournette. What will they do with 2021 Leonard Fournette, and can you trust him on your roster?
Leonard Fournette ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): RB32, Pick 74
Average Auction Value: $5.3 (RB27)
Leonard Fournette Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2020 | 13 | 3 | 97 | 367 | 6 | 47 | 36 | 233 | 0 | 133 | 144 | 600 |
| 2019 | 15 | 15 | 265 | 1152 | 3 | 100 | 76 | 522 | 0 | 341 | 365 | 1674 |
| 2018 | 8 | 8 | 133 | 439 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 185 | 1 | 155 | 159 | 624 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2020 | 3.78 | 7.5 | 28.2 | 3.62 | 2.77 | 76.6% | 4.96 | 6.47 | 10.23 | 11.08 | 46.15 |
| 2019 | 4.35 | 17.7 | 76.8 | 6.67 | 5.07 | 76.0% | 5.22 | 6.87 | 22.73 | 24.33 | 111.60 |
| 2018 | 3.3 | 16.6 | 54.9 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 84.6% | 7.12 | 8.41 | 19.38 | 19.88 | 78.00 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2020 | 96 | 114 | 132.0 | 7.38 | 8.77 | 10.2 | 0.72 | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| 2019 | 183.4 | 221.4 | 259.4 | 12.23 | 14.76 | 17.29 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| 2018 | 98.4 | 109.4 | 120.4 | 12.30 | 13.68 | 15.05 | 0.63 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
2021 Leonard Fournette Fantasy Football Overview:
If you stare directly at Leonard Fournette’s 2020 regular season, you really wonder why he has any sort of ADP that touches close to any halfway good players. The Jacksonville Jaguars cut him near the end of the preseason. The Buccaneers picked him up, but he topped 60% of snaps as many times as he was inactive (3). He also wasn’t all that great when he did play last year, averaging 28.2 rushing yards and 17.9 receiving yards per game on just over 10 touches per contest. Super exciting for Leonard Fournette drafters, I know.
But, if you look at the playoffs, that’s where “Playoff Lenny” smashed. He totaled 448 yards and four touchdowns in four games with the Bucs, solidifying himself in the backfield rotation going forward. I say “solidifying” because it later came out that the Buccaneers almost relieved themselves of one Leonard Fournette in December, after he had gone nearly two whole months without an effective game on the ground.
Fournette’s main value is through the air, where he caught 36 balls in a part-time role. This is a far cry from his prior profile, which was similar to current Gus Edwards but supersized. But, there are two ways to look at Leonard Fournette this season, and checking out his ADP is a good way to think about it.
2021 Leonard Fournette Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Leonard Fournette Auction Value: $0
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
As of right now, Fournette is going as someone’s flex, or RB3, depending on the league. This perfectly splits the difference between how the Buccaneers used Fournette last year and how the Buccaneers used Fournette during the playoffs. Obviously, you can’t expect 112 yards and a score per game this year, but you also can’t expect him to be on the roster bubble every week.
So, what do you believe in? Do you believe that Playoff Lenny is the 2021 Leonard Fournette? Or do you believe that the Leonard Fournette whose regular season after Halloween consisted of 8 carries and 3 receptions for about 43 yards per game?
Personally, Fournette is going at a range where I will respectfully abdicate any attempt to draft him. If he falls a couple of rounds, sure, I’ll take a shot, But around the halfway point of the draft, it feels like too much to get 2021 Leonard Fournette. The downside isn’t really there. When we discuss running back busts who get overdrafted, it fees like Leonard Fournette, Pick 74, is one of the culprits.
Best Case Scenario:
Playoff Lenny (January 9, 2021 – February 7, 2021)
Worst Case Scenario:
Milk Carton Lenny (November 2, 2021 – December 3, 2021)
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: Tom Brady on Twitter]
