It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We finished our quarterbacks already; that means it’s time to get to the most frustrating position! That’s right, we’re on to the running backs. We take a look at a second year running back whose offseason situation change never materialized. But, despite that, should we still be excited about 2021 A.J. Dillon?
A.J. Dillon ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): RB36, Pick 87
Average Auction Value: $1.5 (RB40)
A.J. Dillon Statistics:
|Year||G||GS||Rush||Ru Yds||Ru TD||Tgt||Rec||Yards||TD||Touches||Opp||Total Yards|
|Year||Std Pts||HPPR Pts||PPR Pts||Pts/G||HPPR Pts/G||PPR Pts/G||Pts/Tch||HPPR Pts/Tch||PPR Pts/Tch|
2021 A.J. Dillon Fantasy Football Overview:
We… didn’t see a lot of A.J. Dillon last year. But this year, oh my goodness! Jamaal Williams is a Lion, and Aaron Jones is… still a Packer? Hoo boy. The much-ballyhooed offseason switch from Jones didn’t materialize. Plus, Jones might be the only halfway decent Aaron on the roster in 2021 and should be the lead back. But, Jamaal Williams leaving should provide for an interesting opportunity for Dillon.
We saw Dillon once last season, in a week sixteen snow game against Tennessee. Dillon carried the ball 21 times for 124 yards. this was it, this was pretty much all we saw from Dillon in 2020. It’s the only time he had more than 14 snaps in a game. And he dominated. Granted, the Titans had a questionable defense last year and it was in the snow, which favors the offense. But, still… You have to get a little hot and bothered when you think about it.
While Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon couldn’t be further apart in terms of build and play style, there’s a lot left on the table from Williams joining the division-rival Lions. He suffered an injury in week fifteen, limiting him to just four snaps. But before that point, when Aaron Jones was in the lineup, Williams still averaged a 43% snap share. This is what Williams leaves behind, and it isn’t getting filled by Kylin Hill.
We probably see more passing-downs work from Aaron Jones (a reason why I’m so high on him this year), but that means we probably see less Aaron Jones, hammer, in and around the goal line. Those opportunities will fall to A.J. Dillon, and he should provide a ton of value as the Thunder in this Thunder & Lightning Attack.
2021 A.J. Dillon Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
At RB36, Dillon figures to be one of the higher-end “handcuff” players you could draft. But, if he gets the 40% snap share that Jamaal Williams had most weeks, then it’s wheels up for Dillon as a short-end platoon back. I’m not worried about platoon backs anymore, especially since nearly everyone is in a platoon these days. So, go ahead and snag him as your fourth or fifth running back, and see what happens.
Dillon has less appeal the more points you get for a catch, but he still has some appeal. After all, one touchdown is worth 6 catches in PPR. There’s an upside cap here given that he doesn’t catch the football, but I can’t stop looking at all those snaps that Jamaal Williams left behind in Green Bay.
You don’t have to break the bank for him in an auction, as he’s going for just a couple of bucks. Evan recommends not going out of your way to get him, because Evan focuses on ways to get as few dart throws onto your roster as possible (check out the auction values link).
Best Case Scenario:
He emerges as the new Derrick Henry we all hope and dream he could be.
Worst Case Scenario:
He’s Derrick Henry when the Titans demanded they keep him behind DeMarco Murray for snaps.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
Want more 2021 fantasy football draft discussion? Check out these links!
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]