It’s that time of year once again! Football Absurdity will bring you a breakdown of every notable fantasy football-relevant player throughout June, July, and August. We finished our quarterbacks already; that means it’s time to get to the most frustrating position! That’s right, we’re on to the running backs. Today we take a look at a running back who is consistently among the elite. What can we expect from 2021 Aaron Jones for fantasy football?
Aaron Jones ADP & AAV:
Average Draft Position (HPPR): RB9, Pick 10
Average Auction Value: $52.5 (RB9)
Aaron Jones Statistics:
| Year | G | GS | Rush | Ru Yds | Ru TD | Tgt | Rec | Yards | TD | Touches | Opp | Total Yards |
| 2020 | 14 | 14 | 201 | 1104 | 9 | 63 | 47 | 355 | 2 | 248 | 264 | 1459 |
| 2019 | 16 | 16 | 236 | 1084 | 16 | 68 | 49 | 474 | 3 | 285 | 304 | 1558 |
| 2018 | 12 | 8 | 133 | 728 | 8 | 35 | 26 | 206 | 1 | 159 | 168 | 934 |
| Year | YPC | Rush/G | Ru Yd/G | Tgt/G | Rec/G | Catch% | Yds/Tgt | Yds/Rec | Touches/G | Opp/G | Yds/G |
| 2020 | 5.49 | 14.4 | 78.9 | 4.50 | 3.36 | 74.6% | 5.63 | 7.55 | 17.71 | 18.86 | 104.21 |
| 2019 | 4.59 | 14.8 | 67.8 | 4.25 | 3.06 | 72.1% | 6.97 | 9.67 | 17.81 | 19.00 | 97.38 |
| 2018 | 5.47 | 11.1 | 60.7 | 2.92 | 2.17 | 74.3% | 5.89 | 7.92 | 13.25 | 14.00 | 77.83 |
| Year | Std Pts | HPPR Pts | PPR Pts | Pts/G | HPPR Pts/G | PPR Pts/G | Pts/Tch | HPPR Pts/Tch | PPR Pts/Tch |
| 2020 | 211.9 | 235.4 | 258.9 | 15.14 | 16.81 | 18.5 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 1.04 |
| 2019 | 265.8 | 290.3 | 314.8 | 16.61 | 18.14 | 19.68 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 1.10 |
| 2018 | 145.4 | 158.4 | 171.4 | 12.12 | 13.20 | 14.28 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.08 |
2021 Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Overview:
Aaron Jones did Aaron Jones things last year: 100 total yards per game while kicking in a handful of catches (3.3 per game) and scoring a whole lot of touchdowns (11 in 14 games). Then, the Green Bay Packers made paying Aaron Jones a priority. Unfortunately, not paying the other Aaron on this roster has caused a lot of consternation for those who would otherwise put Jones on the team, because of the fear that Rodgers won’t play. I think Aaron Rodgers will play, and this is all much ado about nothing.
Unfortunately, we haven’t seen a fully-actualized Aaron Jones with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers played only seven games in Jones’s rookie year, but that was pre-breakout. Jones was getting between 25% and 33% of the rushing share, and only a couple of targets per game, whether or not Rodgers was in the lineup.
While I can’t discount the possibility of losing the reigning MVP, I think that losing Rodgers might just be overvalued. Jones faced relatively balanced instances of stacked, base, and light boxes, compared to league average, so it isn’t like Rodgers is greatly changing the box stacking equation. This is likely because the Packers had Davante Adams and Aaron Jones as the only weapons to worry about in the Packers’ offense. When all was said and done, Jones ranked top-five in rush yards, true yards per carry, and yards per touch. None of these were really Aaron Rodgers-generated opportunity stats, so the prospect of potentially losing Rodgers just creates an opportunity, for me.
2021 Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Draft Strategy:
Aaron Jones Auction Value: $50
Draft Ranking: Find out for your league settings in a Beersheet!
I get it. It’s scary to take a guy who might suddenly fall off of a ledge in the first round. That’s why guys like Jonathan Taylor are going ahead of Jones, and why he’s falling into the “alright I have to get a running back in the first round” range of backs. That having been said, I am extremely happy to get Aaron Jones at the back end of the first round, every single time. There’s something to be said of pivoting to wide receiver or even getting Travis Kelce at the end of the first. But, I believe in Aaron Jones.
If you’re in a near-the-turn situation in a 12-team league, try to make Jones a part of your plans. Even if you pass on him for Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce in the first, make him your priority on the comeback. I’m coming out of almost every draft with a combination of Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Ezekiel Elliott when I prioritize running back at the turn. It’s hard to argue with that roster outcome when you prioritize Jones.
Best Case Scenario:
Aaron Rodgers returns and decides to go Spurned Aaron Rodgers all over the entire league. The Packers’ offense reaches new heights but somehow it’s still just Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones. Jones scores 20 touchdowns.
Worst Case Scenario:
Aaron Rodgers returns and decides to go Spurned Aaron Rodgers all over the Green Bay Packers. The Packers’ offense reaches new lows. Aaron Rodgers just audibles to a pass every play and throws it out of bounds. Aaron Jones must wrestle the ball away from Rodgers in the backfield every play to make sure that he doesn’t ruin the season. Jones ends up playing quarterback from the running back slot, and somehow people still think they should draft Jonathan Taylor over him.
Check out all our 2021 player profiles, here.
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[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com, airyards.com, and ftnfantasy.com]
[Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2e/Aaron_Jones_%2836287699470%29.jpg, cropped under CC BY SA 2.0]
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