The Houston Texans are one of the messiest teams in the history of the NFL. They jettisoned Bill O’Brien and somehow came out the other side worse for wear. They spent their offseason filling their roster with career backups, and now they spent the draft doing the same. Bill O’Brien looked at the shelves at his local grocery store in March 2020 and went, “oh! The Texans’ shelves should be this bare!” So, he proceeded to leave them with absolutely nothing of value (they didn’t pick until round three!). There’s also the entire Deshaun Watson with nearly two-dozen sexual assault allegations hanging over his head. The whole Houston Texans organization is a mess, so don’t expect a lot of feel-goods about the three fantasy football-eligible guys they took in the 2021 NFL Draft.
What can we expect in 2021 redraft fantasy football leagues from the Houston Texans’ rookies: Davis Mills, Nico Collins, and Brevin Jordan?
FULL HOUSTON TEXANS DRAFT RESULTS
| Rd | Pick | Player | Pos. | College |
| 1 | 12 | Micah Parsons | LB | Penn State |
| 2 | 44 | Kelvin Joseph | CB | Kentucky |
| 3 | 75 | Osa Odighizuwa | DT | UCLA |
| 3 | 84 | Chauncey Golston | DE | Iowa |
| 3 | 99 | Nahshon Wright | CB | Oregon State |
| 4 | 115 | Jabril Cox | LB | LSU |
| 4 | 138 | Josh Ball | OT | Marshall |
| 5 | 179 | Simi Fehoko | WR | Stanford |
| 6 | 192 | Quinton Bohanna | DT | Kentucky |
| 6 | 227 | Israel Mukuamu | CB | South Carolina |
| 7 | 238 | Matt Farniok | OG | Nebraska |
Round 3, Pick 67 Overall: Davis Mills, Quarterback, Stanford (6’4” 212 pounds)
Depth Chart
QB1: Deshaun Watson*
QB2: Tyrod Taylor
QB3: Davis Mills
QB4: Ryan Finley
*2021 is up in the air
TALENT
Davis Mills and Kyle Trask represented the “next tier” of quarterbacks after the big five first-rounders. Mills has a better arm than Trask, but Stanford rarely asked him to use it. He has great mid-range ball placement, and can occasionally uncork a nice deep ball. But, focus and reads are an issue, as exemplified by an inexcusable easy pick where he never saw the safety against Cal. Mills has great touch with decent accuracy and can flash great ball placement. He isn’t a great runner but he can scoot a little bit (think Mitchell Trubisky).
Stanford didn’t ask him to do a whole lot, relying on RB Nathaniel Peat instead. He has a good pocket presence and can do the little things to evade the pass rush. In the right situation, Mills can do some stuff. But, more than likely he will top out as a back half starting QB if he’s lucky. Think of the Nick Foles career arc for Mills, with the skillset of Jimmy Garoppolo (and maybe the Garoppolo career arc).
2021 OPPORTUNITY
Well, uhm… I have no idea. Nobody has any idea. There’s a King Kong-sized gorilla in the Houston Texans’ quarterback room. QB1 Deshaun Watson has almost two-dozen sexual assault allegations. The opportunity for the rest of the quarterback room hinges on the results of those allegations, and what the league decides to do with Watson in the meantime. Watson could start anywhere between 17 and zero games in 2021, and the rest of the QB room flows from that point.
If it was up to me, Watson would hit the commissioner’s exempt list pending the investigation, at least. That would put Davis Mills in line to get some second-half starts after the Texans figure out a new and interesting way to injury Tyrod Taylor.
2021 FANTASY FOOTBALL OUTLOOK
Even if Davis Mills gets a shot at starting in 2021, I don’t see a world where that is profitable for any fantasy football squads. Mills is basically Jimmy Garoppolo playing with the 49ers’ backups and an underwhelming offensive coordinator. I am not at all interested in Davis Mills in any fantasy football league, even in a 2QB league.
TALENT
2021 OPPORTUNITY
2021 FANTASY OUTLOOK
Round 3, Pick 89 Overall: Nico Collins, Wide Receiver, Michigan (6’4” 215 pounds)
Depth Chart
WR1: Brandin Cooks
WR2: Randall Cobb
WR3: Nico Collins
WR4: Andre Roberts
WR5: Keke Coutee/Chris Conley/Donte Moncrief
TALENT
Nico Collins is big and fast. He’s taller than the tight end they drafted and runs a 4.45 40-yard dash. I wasn’t especially enthralled with Collins’ film when I watched him. He’s competent, but nothing jumped off the page. Collins had trouble getting open, didn’t run great routes (related), and had some trouble with contested catches.
But boy is Collins a great athlete. Collins graded out at an insane 9.57 (out of 10), which ranked sixth in this wide receiver class. His shuttle time marked his only bad rating in the entirety of his profile, though 14 reps on the bench are concerning. He’s a good enough player and an elite athlete. Those two can come together to make sweet fantasy football music.
2021 OPPORTUNITY
Nico Collins is the second-best wide receiver on that roster. All respect to Randall Cobb, but he’s best suited as a career WR3. Now the question comes down to: is Collins the WR2 for Davis Mills or Deshaun Watson. That’s where the trouble starts when trying to gauge his 2021 opportunity. But, if I had to make a list of five rookie wide receivers who are a good bet to get 100 targets, then Collins has to be on that list. He has starter-level talent on a team full of backups, so you might have to wait for him for a little bit while the Texans shed the Andre Robertses of the world, but you can definitely stash him in 12-team and deeper fantasy football redraft rosters.
2021 FANTASY FOOTBALL OUTLOOK
About one-in-five wide receivers taken in the first 100 picks end up as top-36 wide receivers in their rookie year. That comes out to about three this year, mathematically. If it’s an average year for wide receivers, I wouldn’t put Collins in the top three. But, if it’s an unusual year where five rookie wide receivers end up top-36, I would slide Collins in there. He’s purely speculative in a “looter in a riot” way; he could get production on a dysfunctional offense and a squad that burns down around him. I’m just not drafting him to rely on top-36 production.
TALENT
2021 OPPORTUNITY
2021 FANTASY FOOTBALL OUTLOOK
Round 5, Pick 147 Overall: Brevin Jordan, Tight End, Miami (FL) (6’3” 245 pounds)
Depth Chart
TE1: Jordan Akins
TE2: Brevin Jordan
TE3: Kahale Warring
TE4: Pharaoh Brown
TALENT
Jordan is a little undersized for the position, and by “a little undersized” I mean “their rookie WR is taller than him.” But we’ve seen from his closest comp (Jonnu Smith) that you can be undersized and still produce. He is athletic, though having Kyle Pitts in your class really skews things. Jordan is weird insomuch as college tight ends usually aren’t “get the ball in his hands” type of guys, but Jordan was.
He’s athletic, fast, wiggly, elusive, sudden, all those fun adjectives. Jordan can also take a big-time hit from a safety or linebacker and keep on ticking. He showed great heads-up ability & body control against UNC where he twice ducked under would-be tacklers to add dozens of yards of YAC to his rush. I like his athleticism but Jonnu hasn’t been able to do much but flash at this point in his career, so I’m wondering if Brevin Jordan will be the same way.
2021 OPPORTUNITY
Rookie tight ends in fantasy football rarely ever do anything. One tight end in this class has a chance to matter for 2021 fantasy football, and it’s not Brevin Jordan. He could grow and develop into something in year two, but for 2021 redraft leagues, you should look elsewhere.
2021 FANTASY FOOTBALL OUTLOOK
Stop trying to make rookie fantasy football tight ends a thing.
TALENT
2021 OPPORTUNITY
2021 FANTASY FOOTBALL OUTLOOK
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