As we gear up to the start of the NFL season, Football Absurdity is going to bring you a comprehensive breakdown of every notable player that will be available in fantasy football drafts. We only look at the past three seasons for a player. Chris Carson ended the 2019 NFL season with a cracked hip. Can we expect him to return fantasy football value in 2020?
Chris Carson ADP and AAV:
Standard Scoring ADP: RB14, 27 overall
PPR Scoring ADP: RB19, 37 overall
Average Auction Value: $22
Chris Carson Statistics:
Chris Carson Overview:
Chris Carson’s 2019 season went pretty much as you would have expected from an ascendant running back talent. He mostly maintained his rushing efficiency (lost a foot per carry, while still averaging 4.4 yards per carry). His receiving efficiency went down with doubled targets, but that’s never been a huge part of Carson’s game. He ended the year four yards shy of going for 1,500 total yards and nine touchdowns. If he had played in the 49ers’ game, he likely ends up with another score and over that 1,500-yard threshold. He’s one of the strongest runners in the NFL and should abuse defenses in 2020.
Here’s the long and the short of it with Chris Carson and the Seattle Seahawks: they want to run the dang football, and they want Chris Carson to be the one running the dang football. Everything else with the Seahawks (for better or for worse) flows downhill from establishing the run with Chris Carson. The only question for his 2020 campaign is the health of his hip. We’ve seen players come back from this sort of thing before; Frank Gore cracked his hip at the end of the season nearly a decade ago and is still chugging along. Carson, Brian Schottenheimer, and Pete Carroll all seem confident that Carson will be ready to go for week one of the 2020 season.
Chris Carson Draft Strategy:
Chris Carson is going exactly where he belongs, given his skill set: he’s a middling RB2 who would have a guaranteed volume if his injury was not in question. Carson does not catch passes, so if he does end up somewhere inside the top-ten, it will be on the back of a 12+ touchdown season. That isn’t as far outside the realm of possibility as it might seem; Carson ranked fourteenth in goal-line carries and thirteenth in red zone touches last year. He will get plenty of opportunities to produce, he just has to convert.
If you take Chris Carson right now, you are absorbing risk. Ideally, he’s an upside RB3 for me, or an RB2 taken if I have a bead on a different upside RB3 that I really like (Cam Akers, for example). Carson should return from his hip injury and produce just fine next year but don’t rest on your laurels that he will do that. If you take Carson for his going rate, be aggressive about adding another running back in case Carson’s hip injury lingers.
Best Case Scenario:
Chris Carson heals up just fine, Rashaad Penny does not, Carlos Hyde remains a backup. Chris Carson rumbles for 1,500 total yards and 14 touchdowns, finishing as a middling RB1.
Worst Case Scenario:
His cracked hip doesn’t heal quite right, and we are forced to choke down another season of Carlos Hyde.
[Statistics are sourced from pro-football-reference.com and airyards.com]