The playoffs don’t mean the end of daily fantasy football. With only four teams on the slate, finding good value plays is a little bit harder than usual. Also, considering all the teams are good-to-great, there aren’t a whole lot of easily exploitable matchups. The goal of this article is to allow you to jam your daily fantasy football lineup with as many studs as possible by filling out the edges with these value plays. With that being said, here are the Fan Duel Divisional Round value plays for the 2020 playoffs.
Jimmy Garoppolo versus Minnesota ($7,800)
There are only eight quarterbacks that you could reasonably use this weekend, and Jimmy G sits just $200 more than Kirk Cousins and tied with Ryan Tannehill. This doesn’t make all that much sense, given that Handsome James plays at home, as a favorite, with the third-highest implied points total for the week. For the record, his implied point totals sit behind the #1 priciest QB on the slate (a $9,400 Lamar Jackson) and the second-most expensive quarterback this weekend (Patrick Mahomes for $8,600). In the nine games since the 49ers added Emmanuel Sanders, Garoppolo’s averaged 277 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions per game. The Vikings allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points this season but played Mitchell Trubisky, David Blough, Brandon Allen, Matt Moore, Chase Daniel, and Daniel Jones this season. Garoppolo should give them a better fight than those guys did.
Duke Johnson at Kansas City ($5,600)
Johnson is $800 less than his teammate Carlos Hyde and is likely to outscore him unless Hyde gets a couple of short-yardage touchdowns. The Texans are eight-point underdogs this weekend on the road against the Chiefs. That means a lot of passing to catch up, which means beaucoup opportunity for Duke Johnson to showcase his wares. Johnson had an inconsistent 2019 campaign, but when he had an opportunity to produce, he seized it. Duke is a satellite back, a pass-catching back. So, we should look at his target load. In games where he had at least five targets, Duke Johnson averaged 12.1 half-PPR points (Fan Duel’s settings). That is on pace to beat out Marlon Mack to be inside the top-20 at running back this season. Since the Texans will play catchup this weekend, Johnson is virtually assured at least five targets.
Marquise Brown versus Tennessee ($5,300)
This is a major boom-bust play for Brown. I keep coming back to him, even though the numbers may not be there. The Titans don’t have an exceptionally exploitable deep pass attack. They allow 8.1 yards per target to wide receivers, which is literally league-average. They’re also middle of the road against deep passes, but below average at short passes. The Titans allow the fifth-most yardage on short passes to wide receivers this season. Brown has breakaway speed and one slant could have him going 50+ yards to the house. He could also get one catch for six yards. It’s a real doozy.
Jimmy Graham versus Seattle ($5,000)
Only the Cardinals allowed more fantasy points to tight ends this season than the Seahawks. Unfortunately, the Packers haven’t had Graham in their game plan much lately, but the big guy can still be huge and push-off, so he has that going for him. He bounced back from dwindling targets to catch four balls for 49 yards in week seventeen. The Packers spent last week resting and watching game tape. They saw the Eagles guys pick the Seahawks apart. Here’s the short of it: four tight ends in the last five weeks of the season had at least 12.8 fantasy points against the Seahawks in half-PPR (Fan Duel scoring).
Minnesota Vikings D/ST at San Francisco ($3,700)
This one is exceptionally difficult for multiple reasons. First, the 49ers are my team. Second, Jimmy G is the value quarterback. If you don’t believe in Jimmy G, then pivot to the Vikings D/ST. Jimmy G is exceptionally susceptible to taking sacks and making hero ball throws. With Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen attacking this line, it’s likely that Garoppolo takes multiple sacks in this one. That will lead to hurried throws, fumbles, and decreased points. It’s a gamble, but they’re a legitimately good defense in a winnable situation and are just $200 over the Seahawks (second-fewest sacks in 2019) and Texans (playing at Kansas City).
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You can find our breakdowns of the Divisional Round games here
(Header Image Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/Jimmy_Graham_2018_%28cropped%29.jpg, edited under CC BY-SA 2.0)
