There are pros and cons as to when you make your bets. Some bettors like to get in on their NFL bets when the lines immediately go live because they feel that gives them an advantage over having the general public possibly manipulate a line to a point where they don’t feel comfortable. Getting in early locks in a line that hasn’t been moved in one direction or another by the general public. Many gamblers, however, hold off until the last minute because of things that can’t necessarily be known when the lines go live. Weather, injuries, etc can all play into a bettor’s decision-making process that can’t be known until closer to kickoff.
That was the case Sunday in the Bears/Lions game. I picked the Lions getting points on the road because the Bears offense is atrocious, and Matthew Stafford is having a great season. The Lions were lined up to have a good game, making an easy cover. Then, around 8:30 AM Sunday morning, the news that Stafford wouldn’t play gained steam on Twitter. By the time he was officially ruled out, the line had moved four points towards the Bears. Unless you were a huge Jeff Driskel fan, your money was going toward the Bears at home. The line jumped to Bears -6.5, and they won by seven, covering a sloppy, poorly played game.
Tuesday bettors who were chasing a great line with the Lions getting points in a winnable game were now staring at a bet that looked terrible with the backup quarterback playing. That’s how gambling works sometimes. Always weigh the pros and cons of when you make your bet and who you make it on. Read injury reports. Check weather forecasts. Do what you can to be the most prepared person possible for Sunday. That’s where the money is most easily made around the edges. Now on to Week 11 Sure Thing NFL Bets.
As always, before we get going, remember to never bet more than you can afford to lose. If you can only afford to bet five dollars this week, then only bet five dollars. Never go in debt, and never get yourself in trouble over gambling. If you think you have a problem, then step away. It’s easier to walk away than to be dragged away. If you need help walking away, please go to GamblersAnonymous.org.
Sure Thing NFL Bets For Week 11
Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5) at Oakland Raiders
If you had told me before the season started that I was going to be recommending betting on the Raiders giving double-digit points in a game, I would have assumed that the other 31 teams in the NFL had all contracted Legionnaires Disease. At this point, though, the Raiders find themselves just one game out of first place, coached by a man who simply won’t let his team fall into a trap game. Jon Gruden might be bad at many things in coaching, but one thing he has no problem with is getting his teams amped up and ready to play on Sunday.
This is the most obvious line of the week because the Bengals have absolutely zero reasons to be competitive. There is no incentive for them to win a game at this point. They can Tank for Tua, Bomb for Burrows, or anyone else they want. The Bengals are now in the awful team driver’s seat. They only gave up 136 rushing yards last week against the Ravens, which is deceiving because they were still giving up runs at an average of six yards per rush. The Ravens just didn’t bother to ram it down their throat. They just up and beat them through the air instead.
The Raiders are middle of the road in the NFL through the air on a per-game basis, but are seventh in average yards per attempt, meaning they are spreading out their offense well. The Bengals are…not. The more you look at the all-around numbers of the Bengals, the more depressing it gets. Take the Raiders giving the points and call it a day.
New England Patriots (-4) at Philadelphia Eagles
So…are we just pretending like the Eagles are contenders, now? I’m sure not. This team has struggled all over the field outside of small bursts that have allowed them to win a few games. The Packers game looks more like an aberration than a trend at this point. The Eagles are only 21st in the NFL in yards per game through the air and have been treating star tight end Zach Ertz like the unpopular kid in school by not throwing him the ball. Instead, Wentz is throwing to Chris Berman wet dream Dallas Goedert.
The Patriots are, of course, the dynasty that has existed since the dying days of the Bill Clinton White House. The Patriots have been the top of the mountain for three presidents. Most teams’ fans would be happy if their team was at the top of the mountain longer than it takes for a Wayans Brothers produced TV show to get thrown off the air. Crazy days.
The Patriots are still one of the two or best three teams in the NFL. The Eagles very much aren’t. The Eagles are struggling to get their heads above water in the worst division in football, and the Patriots are on their way to clinching their division by the time the calendar turns to December. Never bet against Tom Brady. I’m taking the Patriots giving points on the road.
Atlanta Falcons (+6) at Carolina Panthers
It would be a very Falcons thing to do to go on a small winning streak, ruin their draft position, and cause the owner of this team to not fire its coaching staff. Then, we repeat this entire process again next year, as another year of Julio Jones’ prime slowly fades away behind a terrible offensive line and a game plan that was constructed by an 11-year-old trying to play Madden for the first time.
The Panthers came a yard away from potentially beating the Packers on Sunday. Kyle Allen threw his first career 300-yard game against a very good Green Bay defense. The Falcons defense is not exactly on the Packers level, and is barely above the Bengals level. They are the eleventh worst team in the NFL against the rush, and eighth-worst against the pass. A lot of this would be worse if teams weren’t stepping off the gas so early in games against this team. It’s weird to say that a team is worse than their horrible numbers would proclaim, but here we are.
Coming off a big win against the Saints, the Falcons might seem like a good pick, but i’m going to go ahead and remember that the Falcons are still garbage, and take the Panthers giving points at home.
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Miami Dolphins
Oh, you better believe I’m gonna dip my toes in this mess, babaayyy! The Dolphins are the worst rushing team in football, and the fourth-worst passing team! Buffalo is the 24th best passing team and 12th best running team!
This game is going to be embarrassingly bad to watch, I can assure you of that. The good news is, there is a bet you can jump onto that will give you a reason to bet this Hindenburg of a football game. The over/under on this game is, inexplicably, 41 points. The Dolphins are averaging 13.2(!!!!) points per game, this deep into the season. The Bills are only averaging 19 points themselves. For the over to hit, six touchdowns basically have to hit, or in the case of these two teams, 14 field goals.
Bet the under, then don’t watch this game. And if this is the only game your television provider is allowing you to watch, then go ahead and put your television into a box. Then put the rest of your possessions into boxes, as well. Now put those boxes in the pickup truck of a friend or a moving truck. Now drive that moving truck to a place that provides you better football coverage and remember, there are some places on earth that are just not meant to be lived in.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Rancho Cucamonga Chargers
I’m not even bothering to analyze this. The Chiefs aren’t going to win by less than two touchdowns on Monday night. Take the Chiefs giving points. This is the classic “don’t overthink it” move. In spite of records, we, as football fans, know what a good team and a bad team looks like. Plus, this game is going to be played in Mexico City, and not the Chargers’ beautiful home in Los Angeles… or Carson… or somewhere. Either way, the Chargers have no fans, anymore, and you know Chiefs fans have had this game circled for months as a vacation so they can go warm their rotund bodies while complaining about not being able to find any good barbecue in Mexico City.
You can find Brandon and more of his takes on NFL bets on Twitter @theBman
He is also the co-founder of Fancy Boys Club
If you want more of Brandon’s process into his NFL bets, check out his week ten NFL Bets article here.